Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison Odds, Prediction
| Pena Odds | +470 |
| Harrison Odds | -650 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (+154/-200) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison predictions, picks and odds for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
Since her UFC Debut at UFC 300, Kayla Harrison has been considered something of an uncrowned champion. She gets her chance to officially claim that title at UFC 316, against now two-time bantamweight champion Juliana Pena. Pena's title win was controversial, and the betting market clearly sees this matchup going to the challenger
Here's my Pena vs. Harrison prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pena | Harrison | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 18-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:32 | 10:54 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/19/1989 | 7/2/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.25 | 4.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 64% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.53 | 1.19 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.81 | 2.75 |
| TD Acc | 56% | 30% |
| TD Def | 23% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Even before joining the UFC, Kayla Harrison was well-known in the combat sports community. She first made waves by becoming the first American to win an Olympic gold medal in Judo in 2012 — and then repeated that feat four years later.
Then, she had a dominant run in the PFL, winning the women's lightweight tournament twice and reaching the final in her third attempt.
The big question coming into her UFC run was her ability to make the bantamweight limit. She competed 20lbs heavier in the PFL, and both of her Olympic medals came in the 172lbs division. Harrison has passed the test so far, making 136lbs in each of her UFC fights, but now will be asked to make "championship weight" of 135lbs on the dot.
Assuming she can do so successfully, she's a deserving favorite over Pena. Harrison's background and style bear a passing resemblance to former champion Ronda Rousey, but Harrison has made more of an effort to expand her mixed martial arts game.
Harrison's striking is still somewhat stiff, but she's fairly defensively sound. She also uses her striking to set up takedown entries well, something that other high-level grapplers have struggled with.
She throws a heavy left hand from her southpaw stance, which occasionally turns into a level change into a single leg attempt. Opponents have to choose which threat to respond to, and even if Harrison can't finish the single leg she's typically able to turn that into a clinch.
Her time with American Top Team shows in her utilization of their trademark calf kick. That can off-balance opponents just enough to create a takedown or clinch opportunity.
The biggest question mark in Harrison's game is her cardio. This will be her first five-round fight in the UFC, and her only career loss came in a five-round fight where Harrison faded down the stretch. When you add in the extra weight cut in the UFC, there might not be much gas left in the tank come the later rounds.
That's likely the game plan Pena is banking on as well. Her best attribute is probably her toughness and staying power, as she was able to wait out an early storm from Amanda Nunes before pulling off a shocking Round 2 upset. Even in her loss to Nunes, the fact that she survived five rounds with all the damage she took was something of a moral victory.
Outside of that, it's hard to say exactly what Pena is good at relative to other championship-level fighters. She holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but has two submission losses in the UFC along with her two wins.
Her striking is probably technically better than Harrison's, but she's far slower and less powerful than Harrison. She also has just 23% takedown defense in the UFC, which is especially problematic here.
Even Pena's cardio is somewhat questionable, as she dropped the championship rounds unanimously in her title win over Racquel Pennington.
Pena vs. Harrison Prediction
The only way I can see Pena pulling off the upset here is by outlasting a depleted Harrison and taking over down the stretch. This will be the first time Harrison cuts all the way to 135lbs and her first five-round bantamweight fight, both of which could impact her cardio.
However, I'm not betting Pena prefight.
My initial read was Harrison via KO/TKO since she's fairly aggressive with her ground and pound. However, the pair of submission losses to lesser grapplers from Pena scares me, so instead I'm playing Harrison in the first three rounds at +115.
I may add Harrison's knockout prop — which is as high as +330 at FanDuel — in our Prop Squad selection later on, especially if the line grows.
I'll also have my eyes open for a potential live bet on Pena. We could easily see her live odds swell past ten-to-one if Harrison starts hot so it could be a good opportunity.
Billy's Pick: Kayla Harrison in Rounds 1, 2, or 3 +115 (FanDuel)
