Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long Odds
| Garbrandt Odds | +130 |
| Xiao Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Garbrandt vs. Xiao pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Garbrandt | Xiao | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-7 | 27-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:02 | 14:25 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 65" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/7/1991 | 4/13/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.88 | 5.25 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.64 | 4.20 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.93 | 0.69 |
| TD Acc | 27% | 25% |
| TD Def | 83% | 79% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Garbrandt vs. Xiao Pick, Prediction
Cody Garbrandt is the popular public underdog of the week, taking 63% of the picks across my public data sample, compared to betting odds closer to 42% implied.
Long Xiao is seven years younger, owns a five-inch reach advantage over the former champion, and I haven't loved Garbrandt's physicality or power since moving up to Bantamweight; I expect him to get overpowered by his younger opponent.
I bet against Garbrandt in each of his two fights since moving to 135, and anticipate that he's going to get finished in the wrong matchup; his chin was seemingly compromised in the latter parts of his Flyweight run, and while that may have been weight-cut related, I've been waiting for an action-fighter to test his chin at this weight class.
Xiao will push a high pace and force Cody to engage with him, and if Garbrandt is unwilling to wrestle (Xiao has been taken down in five of six promotional bouts), I'd expect him to get clipped and hurt in the pocket.
While I get the arguments for betting on Garbrandt as an underdog, modeling the market this way points to Xiao as the clear value side of the line; public handicappers and fans have all the love for "No Love" this weekend, but the market has not budged on Xiao's favoritism.
I projected his moneyline closer to -200, and would bet him up to -180. Still, I might prefer his odds to win inside the distance (projected +236, listed +275) or by KO/TKO (projected +343, listed +480) as Garbrandt is historically the more reliable minute-winner.
Zerillo's Pick:
- Xiao Long (-145, Risk 0.5u), HardRockBet; bet to -180
- Xiao Long wins Inside the Distance (+300, 0.15u), ScoreBet; bet to +250
