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Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Time Prop to Bet (Saturday, June 25)

Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Time Prop to Bet (Saturday, June 25) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Neil Magny.

  • Neil Magny takes on Shavkat Rakhmonov in the co-main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night.
  • Rakhmonov enters as a heavy favorite, but Billy Ward sees value on a time prop.
  • Check out his top bet for Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov below.

Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov Odds

Magny Odds +360
Rakhmonov Odds -500
Over/Under 1.5 (-150 / +118)
Venue UFC APEX
Time Approx. 12 a.m. ET
Channel ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel.

While the main event features lightweight contenders, ranked welterweights are squaring off in the co-main.

Neil Magny has been a fixture of the second half of the welterweight rankings for a long time, with a 19-7 UFC record dating back to 2013.

Across from the cage from him is the rising prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov is a perfect 15-0 in his professional fight career, with each win coming inside the distance. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and has the potential to be the next big thing at 170.

That is, if he can get through the veteran Magny on Saturday. We’ll break down his chances, as well as the best bet for Saturday’s co-main event below.

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Tale of the Tape

Magny Rakhmonov
Record 26-9 15-0
Avg. Fight Time 12:53 5:20
Height 6’3″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 80″ 77″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 8/3/87 10/23/94
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.67 2.94
SS Accuracy 45% 53%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.17 1.56
SS Defense 55% 57%
Take Down Avg. 2.37 1.88
TD Acc 40% 33%
TD Def 58% 100%
Submission Avg 0.3 1.9

After picking up finishes over lesser competition early in his career, Magny has settled in as a minute-winner against upper-level welterweights. He’s solidly well-rounded with above-average output in both striking and grappling.

His biggest strength is probably his reach. At 80 inches, it’s exceptionally long for the division, allowing him to stay out of range of most of his opponents. His striking defense is excellent from both a strikes absorbed and percentage standpoint.

He’s also solid on the ground, picking up over two takedowns per fight.  He has just one submission win in the UFC, though, and three losses. That could be a problem against Rakhmonov, and I doubt Magny tries to bring this one to the mat.

Rakhmonov is making a major step up in competition here after three extremely dominant UFC wins. While he has a Sambo background, his striking stands out compared to the other Soviet prospects we’ve seen.

That was on display in his spinning hook kick knockout of Carlston Harris in his last bout.

He’s been excellent defensively as well. Like Magny, he’s huge for the division with a 77-inch reach. Of course, he’s still at a disadvantage against Magny, his first UFC opponent who’s longer than he is.

His easiest path to victory is probably through grappling, given Magny’s track record. It’s telling that Rakhmonov has never scored multiple takedowns in a round — his opponents generally don’t get back up.

Getting Magny there in the first place will be a challenge, however, as Magny has solid takedown defense.

Of course, getting inside his reach will be an even bigger problem, especially for a Sambo fighter who relies more on throws and trips than shooting for takedowns from a distance.

Magny vs. Rakhmonov Pick

This is a major step up in competition for Rakhmonov, but betting markets think he’ll handle it easily. He’s a -410 or so favorite depending on the book, which is far more than I’m willing to lay against a dangerous veteran opponent.

It should be more competitive than that, though, which is why I’m targeting some time props here — my favorite of which is over 1.5 rounds, currently -177 on BetRivers.

Magny’s reach creates a tough puzzle to solve, and I expect some feeling out between these two fighters early on. Magny probably won’t succumb to the first takedown either and has enough up his sleeve to survive some time on the ground with Rakhmonov.

Since I don’t see Rakhmonov finishing this one on the feet — and it takes longer to get finishes on the ground — the fight to start Round 3 at -108 is interesting as well. Over 1.5 is my preference, though.

The Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (-177)

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