Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jamall Emmers vs. Jack Jenkins: Buy Low With Underdog Bet (Saturday, June 24)

Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jamall Emmers vs. Jack Jenkins: Buy Low With Underdog Bet (Saturday, June 24) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Jack Jenkins of Australia

Jamall Emmers vs. Jack Jenkins Odds

Emmers Odds-210
Jenkins Odds+180
Over/Under2.5 (-185 / +150)
VenueVyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Time11:45 a.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings

The UFC's latest prospect out of Australia is a short, stocky featherweight with a background in wrestling and rugby.

Along with the stylistic similarities, he's also an occasional training partner of the featherweight champ while possessing a similar fighting style. Before the Alexander Volkanovski comparisons go to "Phar," though, Jack Jenkins needs to get through Jamall Emmers.

Emmers is 2-2 in the UFC and coming off a win in his last fight.

It's time to find out if we have another Australian contender on our hands – and if we have a buy-low opportunity on our hands in the betting markets – with UFC Jacksonville on Saturday afternoon.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time10:3714:45
Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145 lbs.
Reach (inches)74"68"
Date of birth6/24/198911/3/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min5.284.54
SS Accuracy50%69%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.752.27
SS Defense59%58%
Take Down Avg2.264.07
TD Acc50%72%
TD Def100%89%
Submission Avg0.30.0

Jenkins has made just two appearances under the UFC banner, including his fight on Contender Series.

Prior to his Contender Series bout, he was riding a six-fight winning streak and was the featherweight champion of the Oceanic promotion Eternal MMA. His last two losses came in late 2017 and early 2018, shortly after he transitioned from being a part-time rugby player to a full-time fighter.

I point that out because even though he's not especially young, he's still relatively new to the MMA game, making his pro debut in 2016. He brings all the explosiveness you'd expect from an athlete transitioning from a different sport, with excellent cardio as well.

He has a wrestling background that he puts to good use, showing excellent timing on his takedowns.

The performance that scored Aussie Jack Jenkins a spot on the UFC Roster! 😱

Rising featherweight @PharJack returns to the Octagon this Sunday!

πŸ“ΊπŸ“±#UFCJacksonville | Prelims 1:30.a.m. AEST | 3:30.a.m. NZST | Live on ESPN and @UFCFightPasspic.twitter.com/l4k5rkohql

β€” UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) June 20, 2023

While he doesn't bring the high-level chain-wrestling we see from some fighters, his ability to transition between striking and grappling is superb. It serves him especially well against taller/longer opponents since he's able to instantly change levels as they extend to strike him.

Jenkins is a solid striker, as well, relying on footwork and volume to overwhelm his opponents. He mixes in body shots well – a key attribute for a shorter fighter since the opponent's torso is often the closest target. H

His best strike is his calf kick, though. He's ended fights on the regional scene with it, and he nearly dropped Don Shainis with them on multiple occasions.

Jenkins does have a tendency to overextend with the kick, though, which could get him into trouble against a sharp counter striker. Against the taller Emmers, he'll need to close the distance and disguise the kick behind other strikes rather than throwing it "naked" from range. His ability to do so just might decide this fight.

Especially if he's unable to bring Emmers to the mat. Emmers, though, boasts a perfect 100% takedown defense in his four UFC bouts.

That's especially impressive given his last fight, which was against Checnyan grappler Khussein Askhabov.

On the other hand, Askhabov was fairly one-dimensional with his takedown attempts while Jenkins will look to mix them in with strikes – though Askhabov is almost assuredly the better pure wrestler.

Emmers also has a wrestling background, though he's at his best when standing and striking. He was able to take Giga Chikadze to a split decision in a fight that was mostly contested on the feet. Emmers also dropped Pat Sabatini in their fight before succumbing to a heel hook that shredded his knee and kept him out of competition for 18 months.

While Emmers was victorious in his return from that injury, he was noticeably less explosive than he'd been in previous fights. Rather than darting in and out of range with sharp shots, he pawed at Askhabov from a distance without landing many powerful shots.

While it's certainly possible that was just ring rust, it's a concerning sign moving forward.

Emmers vs. Jenkins Pick

Emmers' knee injury is a big concern for me here, especially against a fighter like Jenkins. Between his footwork, transitions and penchant for targeting his opponents' legs, this is a rough fight for someone with a questionably healed knee.

Besides that factor, there's also the matter of cardio. Emmers looked noticeably slower in the third round of his fight with Ashkabov. Jenkins, meanwhile, has managed to keep his foot on the gas pedal throughout his UFC and Contender Series fights.

Similar to Volkanovski, Jenkins has the ability to simply outwork his opponents down the stretch of their fights.

When betting on MMA, we always need to remember our ABCs: Always. Bet. Cardio.

That's what I'll be doing here, with a small moneyline bet on Jenkins now plus an additional sprinkle on a same-game parlay with Jenkins to win and over 1.5 rounds, when that becomes available.

For now, though, I'd take the Jenkins moneyline down to +150.

The Pick: Jack Jenkins (+180 at DraftKings)

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