The Road to UFC tournament is the promotion's annual talent search across Australasia. Conducted exclusively across the men's weight classes from 155lbs and down, each division is an 8-man tournament with a UFC contract offered as a prize to the winner.
While most of these bouts are conducted on standalone events, some are attached to other UFC cards. Earlier in the season, we saw UFC Shanghai feature a mix of RUFC and UFC proper bouts.
Now, the first four fights on the UFC 325 prelims in Sydney will be the championship bouts for the four divisions contested in the tournament. Much like my weekly previews for Contender Series events, I'll be going through each of these four fights with a preview of both fighter's abilities, long term potential in the UFC, and most importantly, suggested bets for each fight.
The portion of the UFC 325 event that contains these bouts starts at 5:00 p.m. ET and runs until roughly 7:00 p.m, at which time the rest of the fights will be traditional UFC contests.
Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Bet on the RUFC4 finale with our DraftKings promo code.
Road to UFC Season 4 Finale: Odds & Best Bets
Flyweight: Namsrai Batbayar (-125) vs. Aaron Tau (+105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
The UFC 325 card is starting with a bang, as two all-action flyweights battle it out for a UFC contract.
Mongolia's Namsrai Batbayar has a shot to continue the wave of Mongolians in the UFC. The 9-1 flyweight has never seen a decision, with his lone career loss coming against previous Road to the UFC winner and current UFC flyweight Nyamjargal Tumendemberel. Batbayar was impressive in his two previous tournament bouts, securing knockdowns in both fights, and finishing one with a submission and the other with a flurry of strikes on the mat after his knockdown.
Batbayar opened both of his tournament bouts with spinning techniques, a kick in the first fight, and a backfist in the second. That's a good microcosm of his at times reckless style, which relies on his chin, power, and speed more than sharp technique. He also has a tendency to miss big, which could expose him to counterattacks from opponents with the guts to stay in the pocket and answer back — which certainly describes Tau.
The favored Batbayar will also look to grapple on occasion, though his best takedown is a punch. Still, he's a talented back taker, and at worst, the occasional takedown attempts he shows function as a way to break the rhythm of his opponents during striking exchanges. That's an important tool for Batbayar to keep opponents at his preferred striking range, as it deters them from pressing forward and cutting the distance.
New Zealand's Aaron Tau trains at the famed City Kickboxing gym, and this is his second crack at a UFC roster spot after dropping a close decision to Elijah Smith (2-0 UFC) on the Contender Series. The short (5'4"), compact Tau is all action, storming forward with a heavy dose of the patented CKB feints, before either throwing bombs or looking for massive takedowns from close distance.
He's giving up two inches of reach against Batbayar, but that's nothing new for "Tauzemup," given his stature. He's probably the better pure wrestler in this matchup, so I doubt the takedown threats from Batbayar will deter his forward pressure, though the Mongolian's power very well might. However, Tau is defensively sound, using his feints to bait opponents into big swings and misses before answering back. He tends to carry his hands low and rely on head movement, but also has a solid chin, having never been finished in his career.
What I like most about Tau is that his heavy shots and tendency to lift and slam opponents on takedowns look very good to the judges, with high-impact takedowns much more likely to sway close rounds even without much damage on the ground. The drawback of that style is how energy intensive it is, with Tau often fading late in his fights.
I suspect his pressure, chin, and defense will be enough to have success early against Batbayar, which is why he's my prefight side.
However, if Tau is able to bank a round (or two) early and swing the moneyline heavily, I'll be looking for live arbitrage opportunities on Batbayar, who should hold up better down the stretch.
Prediction: Aaron Tau defeats Namsrai Batbayar in Round 2
Billy's Bet: Tau +105 (DraftKings) | Batbayar Live
Bantamweight: Sulangrangbo (-258) vs. Lawrence Lui (+210)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Our next fight also features a City Kickboxing prospect, this time in the form of Hong Kong -born Kiwi Lawrence Lui. Lui is 7-1 as a pro, with his only loss coming via split decision to former DWCS competitor Anthony Drillich.
Lui has a 72" reach at just 5'7", making him perfectly suited for the range feint-heavy attacks from range that City Kickboxing became known for, thanks to Israel Adesanya. While watching his fights, the most notable thing was his patience, as he looks to confuse opponents with feints and takedowns while setting up clean strikes. He occasionally steps over the fine line between being patient and waiting too long, though, which could explain a split decision going against him early in his career.
My read on his grappling is that his takedown attempts are mostly intended to open up his striking, rather than serve as his primary weapon. He's never won a fight by submission, nor was he credited with any official attempts in either of his Road to UFC bout. That's not a bad thing necessarily, especially in this matchup against Sulangrangbo.
Sulangrangbo is a pure striker, with a 10-3 record at just 20 years old. He has extremely fast hands, and becomes especially dangerous striking once he's able to set his feet and get into rhythm with his boxing. In his semi-final bout, UFC fighter Michael Chiesa was serving as commentator, and noted that the best way to approach Sulangrangbro would be disrupting his timing with both forward pressure and takedown attempts.
That's exactly what Lui does at his best, and he also has a 5.5-inch reach edge that should help him control the distance here. Sulangrangbo has better physical tools and likely has the brightest UFC future regardless of what happens Saturday. However, it's a tough stylistic matchup against a fighter who should come in well-prepared with his elite team behind him.
That's more than enough justification for me to bet Lui at better than two-to-one odds, with the +230 at Caesars Sportsbook the best currently available line. I'd take it down to +185 should the line move.
Prediction: Lui by Decision
Billy's Bet: Lui +230 (Caesars)
Featherweight: Sebastian Szalay (-142) vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (+120)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:15 p.m. ET
This is probably the fight I'm having the hardest time getting a read on. A large part of that is due to the fact that Szalay won his semfinal bout in less than a minute, making it hard to get a read on his true skill level against tougher competition.
What we do know is that he was an international-level Karate champion before switching to MMA, and that's very noticeable in his striking style. He's a very active striker, but primarily is looking to just touch his opponents rather than finish them, quick win in the last fight notwithstanding.
He has the sound defense we've come to expect from fighters with a background in traditional martial arts, officially defensing 71% of the strikes thrown at him in the RUFC tournament. He's also defended 11 of the 13 takedowns he's faced, and was able to keep his opponent off balance enough when he was taken down that he didn't absorb a single grounded strike.
The problem is that Szalay doesn't seem to grapple offensively much, if at all, and Nakamura is a fighter much easier to beat on the ground.
Keiichiro Nakamura is a training partner of UFC bantamweight and past RUFC winner Rinya Nakamura, although they aren't related. While Rinya is an elite grappler, Keiichiro is a much better striker. Six of his seven career wins have been knockouts (the lone exception being his semifinal bout), with his only loss coming via submission. He was also taken down three times in his most recent fight, though gave up under 90 seconds of control time.
The southpaw takes a wide stance and holds his hands low, which also suggests a Karate background. While he shares Szalay's defensive capabilities, he's much more aggressive offensively, throwing more and harder strikes. He also has four inches of height and reach, which is a big boost for fighting at the type of range both seem to prefer.
He's also five years younger, which isn't a huge factor but is still a slight edge. Plus, the line has moved towards Szalay after Nakamura opened as a favorite, while our long-term data suggest the fighter initially listed as favored wins more often than not.
I'm taking another (slight) underdog shot here on Nakamura, with the +120 line on DraftKings as good as it gets in the market — though we could see an even better price come fight time.
Prediction: Nakamura by KO
Billy's Bet: Nakamura +120 (DraftKings)
Lightweight: Dom Mar Fan (-148) vs. Sang Uk Kim (+124)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
The fighter I've enjoyed watching the most this tournament is Dom Mar Fan. The 8-2 Australian is undefeated outside of bouts against UFC 325 main card opener Quillan Salkillid, who has beaten Fan twice in regional promotions.
"Street Buddha" brings a grappling heavy style to his fights that has served him well in a tournament comprised primarily of strikers. He's landed seven total takedowns across the two bouts, and while he was taken down four times himself, three of those ended up with Fan reversing into top position.
His preferred strategy to bring the fight to the ground is from extremely close quarters. Fan punches his way into range where he looks to set up trips and sweeps from various body lock positions, and is well-versed in executing them regardless of whether he has overhooks or underhooks. Paired with his 6'3" reach, this creates a problem for his opponents. They can't stay on the outside, where Fan can hit them but they can't strike back, but if they press forward they're playing right into his game. That also explains why Fan has struggled against Salkillid, who stands two inches taller with an identical reach.
My main criticism of Fan is his reliance on submission attempts and positional control over damage on the ground. If his bouts were scored like jiu-jitsu matches, he'd be serving up blowout victories. However, when he's unable to finish his opponent with submissions, the lack of damage leads to rounds being closer than they ought to be. He's also somewhat risky with his grappling, leading him to end up in bad positions when his submission attempts don't work out.
His elite scrambling and reversals have made that less of an issue, but they did come back to haunt him in his two losses to Salkillid, both of which came via submission.
That makes the matchup with Sang Uk Kim intriguing. Kim also does his best work grappling, with both of his tournament wins coming on the ground. One of those was via ground and pound, which shows a willingness to strike on the ground that Fan lacks. The bad news is he was taken down three times in that fight before securing a crucifix on a later attempt, which won't be there against a grappler as skilled as Fan.
Given the relative lack of time on the feet for both men, it's hard to imagine how prolonged striking will go here, but Kim is both more active and more reckless. He'll do more offensively, but was also hurt with body shots early in his last fight and absorbs nearly 5.5 significant strikes per minute.
I don't expect the striking to be a deciding factor here one way or the other, though. The style with which Fan grapples, combined with his length, should give him a solid edge here, so I'll lay the juice on the Australian. The line has moved against him this week after he opened close to -200, so consider holding off on placing the bet until we see if we can get a better price.
Prediction: Fan by Decision
Billy's Bets: Fan -148 (DraftKings)
