Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds
| Brady Odds | -170 |
| Buckley Odds | +142 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The main card of UFC 328 features a welterweight showdown between Top 10 welterweights, Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley. Coming off a tough stoppage loss to future middleweight Michael Morales, Brady will be looking to regain the momentum he had prior as a legitimate title contender.
Buckley, who also had a solid run going before his last bout, will attempt to bounce back from his lone welterweight loss under the UFC umbrella. I don't believe that the promotion will cut the loser of this bout like Buckley is suggesting, but I do think that a win here is pivotal to both parties' statuses as future contenders at 170 pounds.
Here's my Brady vs. Buckley pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Brady | Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-2 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:11 | 11:33 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 11/23/1992 | 4/27/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.96 | 3.88 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 36% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.05 | 2.93 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.53 | 1.54 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 45% |
| TD Def | 86% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.1 |
In a card that's seemingly full of striker vs. grappler affairs, this fight between Brady and Buckley appears to follow suit as far as that stylistic dynamic goes.
Brady, who is the more grapple-heavy combatant by a country mile, is primarily looking to punish opponents on the floor. Built like a backyard shed, Brady is a physically imposing takedown artist and top position player who knows where his bread is buttered. And once Brady establishes a dominant position, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is both methodical and patient when it comes to bottlenecking opposition into his preferred submissions.
On the feet, Brady has continued to make steady improvements to his striking, particularly against southpaws.
Although I wish Brady would utilize his lead hand more to seize striking initiatives, his flexible backfoot approach can allow opponents to over-commit on their entries and give up easy takedowns.
Enter Buckley. An explosive striker who is not afraid to load up heavy on linear advances, Buckley brings a powerful barrage of southpaw strikes to the table.
Whether Buckley is launching classic crosses and hooks or sneaking in shovel punches off of his lead, "New Mansa" is a menace to deal with on the feet. Buckley also has a knack for mixing in heavy kicks, but I suspect he shelves a decent amount of those attacks considering the kick-countering ability of Brady.
Buckley has solid first-layer takedown defense when he's on both feet, demonstrating a solid sprawl and underhook awareness to boot. The potential problem, however, is that Buckley can be inconsistent in covering the head on defense, which, in turn, can allow his opponent to make directional changes and execute extended attacks.
Brady vs. Buckley Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the fighter from Philadelphia, listing Brady -170 and Buckley +142 as of this writing.
Although I don't disagree with who is favored, part of me suspects that this line would (and should) be wider if the public weren't so down on Brady's last performance.
However, outside of Morales being a ridiculously large phenom who is destined to finish his career at light heavyweight, it's worth noting that Brady was not medically cleared for said fight until just a couple of hours before having to go and compete (where Brady then mysteriously came out rocking double knee sleeves and couldn't muster any real takedown attempts).
Should Brady be anywhere near operational health, then I believe that he rolls in this spot. Brady standing 3-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws aside, wrestle-heavy fighters (outside of a washed Colby Covington, whose wrestling game was visibly deteriorated in fights prior) have traditionally been tough stylistic matchups for Buckley, dating all the way back to his Bellator 197 loss opposite stout wrestling welterweight, Logan Storley.
In fact, Buckley officially stands at 4-5 in the octagon when unable to score a takedown of his own (with the wins coming over washed or recently-winless UFC opponents).
I like Brady's submission prop and will be playing it in a round robin this weekend. And though I feel like Brady's money line is playable at anything south of -180, I'll happily take some discounted middleground in the "double chance" prop market by playing Brady to win by submission or points.
Dan's Picks: Sean Brady Points/Submission -135 (FanDuel)
