UFC 259 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews (March 6)

UFC 259 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews (March 6) article feature image
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Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Brady.

  • Sean Brady takes an undefeated record into today's welterweight bout with Jake Matthews.
  • Erich Richter explains below why Brady's submission game makes him worth betting on the UFC 259 undercard.

Brady vs. Matthews Odds

Brady odds -215
Matthews odds +170
Over/Under 2.5 (-215 / +155)
Venue UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 7 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Philly’s own Sean Brady faces off against the “Celtic Kid” Jake Matthews in a heavily anticipated early prelim matchup on Saturday’s UFC 259 card.

Brady is an undefeated prospect with one of the strongest jiu-jitsu games in the UFC. He is a training partner of Paul Felder and a Renzo Grace jiu-jitsu black belt. He should have the advantage on the ground over basically any opponent.

Matthews, on the other hand, has won six of seven fights — most recently defeating aging former star Diego Sanchez. Matthews is known for high-volume striking and wrestling that has helped him earn 10 UFC victories.

Tale of the Tape

Brady Matthews
Record 13-0 17-4
Avg. Fight Time 12:16 11:17
Height 5’10” 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 73″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 11/23/92 8/19/94
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.44 3.15
SS Accuracy 55% 46%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.35 2.12
SS Defense 61% 63%
Take Down Avg 3.26 2.09
TD Acc 57% 41%
TD Def 100% 70%
Submission Avg 1.2 0.7

Matthews is coming off of three straight decision victories. In his lone loss, he was submitted by Anthony Rocco Martin who has good — not great — jiu-jitsu.

Matthews looked strong on the feet last time out. However, he did put himself into unnecessary danger on the ground with Sanchez in round 3. This could be quite telling against a scary jiu-jitsu phenom like Brady.

Despite his prowess for takedowns, Matthews would be wise to not shoot for takedowns to catch his breath as he has in recent fights. Brady is known for his guillotine choke, which ended his last fight.

Matthews’ main goal in this fight should be to defend the takedown and stay standing. He has done this at a solid rate in the past, with 70% takedown defense per UFCStats.

Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews Pick

Brady is the younger and cleaner fighter in the matchup.

For starters, Brady lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute compared to just 3.15 for Matthews. Brady also lands 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 57% clip — near the top in the welterweight division.

Matthews uses a lot of muscle when shooting for takedowns, which can be very tiring. In his fight against James Vick,  Matthews attempted a double leg takedown and put his head in a very vulnerable place, leading to a guillotine submission.

This makes me hesitant to believe Matthews will be able to come away on Saturday with a win. Brady is known for his submission skills and his guillotine submission especially. Felder went as far as to say that, “Sean has a squeeze like I have never felt in my life” when talking about his guillotine choke.

Brady appears to be every bit a rising star in the UFC division. He has landed multiple takedowns in every UFC fight thus far. I would expect Brady to continue this strategy on Saturday.

Brady is currently +525 to win via submission on BetMGM. I would bet this down to +450 at a three-percent edge. It is worth mentioning that many books are weary of this outcome, and I would stay away if you see this prop at +400, as it is at many books.

There is little value on any fighter to win a decision, which seems to be the consensus. The fight to go to a decision is at -186. Oddsmakers may continue to juice the over-round props as eight of nine fights went to a decision last weekend.

The Pick: Sean Brady via submission +525 (1u)

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