The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL; it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
We've got an interesting Week 6 card outside of a poorly-matched squash match in the middle, with some intriguing prospects and reasonably close betting lines.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 6 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 15, fight card.
DWCS Season 10 Episode 6 of Contender Series streams tonight on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets and see mine in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 6 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 6 Odds & Best Bets
Featherweight: Tyshawn Williams (-258) vs. Antonio Monteiro (+210)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
We open Week 6 with a featherweight bout between undefeated prospect Tyshawn Williams and 18-5-1 veteran Antonio Monteiro. This is the second DWCS appearance for Antonio Monteiro, who lost a decision to Yadier Del Valle in 2024. It's hard to say exactly how that win has aged, with YDV going 3-1 in the UFC but one of those wins coming through no fault of his own, against an opponent who appeared to be throwing the fight.
Monteiro has fought just once since his initial Contender Series shot, picking up a win over a 5-1 opponent last summer. As such, my initial scouting report on him remains fairly relevant. The Nova Unaio product has the somewhat-familiar Brazilian Muay Thai and BJJ style, with aggressive pressure on the feet and a solid ground/guard game that serves as a deterrent for opponents looking to grapple. The twist is he's a solid offensive wrestler as well, who will mix in takedowns and a strong top game to damage opponents on the ground.
Not that I expect him to use it against Williams, a former D1 wrestler who finished fourth in the MAC his senior year before having his national tournament bid cancelled due to COVID. Since then, he picked up a pair of first round knockout wins as an amateur, then turned pro and raced off to an 8-0 start.
Just two of those wins came against opponents with winning records, one of whom was 37 years old and the other was returning to action after more than a three-year layoff. As such,his level of competition is more questionable than just the numbers suggest.
Williams stands in a wide southpaw stance, where he throws heavy shots form the left side including, for my taste, far too many rear leg head kicks. He's a good athlete who can overwhelm opponents on the feet with speed and power before he gets into his wrestling, but he's not especially skilled as a striker.
What concerns me in this matchup is that he isn't especially skilled in top position, either. He will likely be able to take down Monteiro here, but I'm not sure he is able to do much with it against the BJJ black belt. He's a deserving favorite, but I question his ability to truly separate the way we'd expect from a fairly heavy favorite.
I'm splitting my bets between Monteiro's moneyline, which is as high as +235 at FanDuel, and his +3.5 point spread, which is +105 at DraftKings. Monteiro has been finished just once, back in 2015 when he was 20 years old, so should be able to survive and hopefully steal a round from Williams if not win outright.
Prediction: Williams via Decision
Billy's Bet: Monteiro +235 (FanDuel) | Monteiro +3.5 (+105, DraftKings)
Middleweight: Hugo Guillon (-180) vs. Luis Hernandez (+150)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET
Luis Hernandez is a 7-0 middleweight from Florida, and is probably best known for his taunting of Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis that lead to a viral brawl in 2025:
He's a legit fighter though, who splits his training between a handful of high level gyms (Kill Cliff FC, Syndicate MMA, etc) when he's not working as a sheriff's deputy in the Miami area. Not an especially technical fighter "The Stache" is mostly a southpaw brawler, winging big punches from range before looking to snap his opponent's down in the clinch and set up offensive grappling and/or front headlocks. He hit a standing guillotine shortly before the brawl with Strickland and Curtis, and has used it as a setup to get top position in other fights.
However, against higher-level grapplers, this can quickly turn into a bad habit of hunting guillotines instead of defending takedowns. He doesn't seem to have any wrestling background, so he'll need to be mindful of not sacrificing position for a somewhat low-percentage submission attempt.
Hernandez has also mostly fought at welterweight or catchweight bouts between 170 and 185lbs in his career and is undersized for middleweight at 5'9", though he's packed on some muscle and looks to be in visibly better shape for this fight than he was in the past. I do believe a return to welterweight raises his ceiling, but we'll see how his new physique holds up this week.
His opponent, 6'4" Frenchman Hugo Guillon, is certainly not undersized for middleweight. The 28-year-old is a primary sparring partner of former UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis (also a massive middleweight) and has a background in Judo.
He's at his best grappling, but has the now-expected sharp French kickboxing as well. His 79" reach gives him a massive range edge over Hernandez, and Guillon should be able to pick apart the sloppier American at distance. His Judo background is a nice complement to his reach, as opponents likely don't want to force him into clinch situations since that's where Judo is the most effective.
Guillon should win this fight, with Hernandez having a puncher's chance but probably not many other paths to victory. That's enough for me to lay the juice on the favorite, with the line gradually moving his way since opening around -160 over the weekend. The best current odds are -172 at FanDuel, but I'd play Guillon to -190.
Prediction: Guillon via TKO
Billy's Bets: Hugo Guillon -172 (FanDuel)
Lightweight: Akbar Abdullaev (-2100) vs. Ednilson Santos (+1100)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
The "poorly matched squash match" I reference in the introduction is this lightweight contest between 13-0 Akbar Abdullaev and 14-7-1 Ednilson Santos. Santos steps in on short notice to replace Anthony Figueroa — who also would've been a massive underdog here — in what is closer to a sanctioned murder than a fair fight between two equally-matched adults.
Abdullaev has 12 knockouts and one submission on his perfect record. The last five of those fights came in ONE FC, where he knocked out consecutive 10-0 opponents among other fairly stiff competition. He typically finishes opponent on the feet where he works behind an excellent jab, but has also dominated contests on the ground with elite takedowns and top game. He's reminiscent of a lightweight Shavkhat Rakhmonov — except with two seemingly healthy knees.
Santos trains with former pro fighter and current translator/coach/friend to Alex Pereira Plinio Cruz, at a gym that lists one other pro fighter officially on the roster. He's alternated wins and losses over his last four fights on the regional scene, with two decision wins and a knockout loss to two-time DWCS loser Dylan Mantello. With the right matchup and a full training camp Santos could probably hang with some DWCS-level guys, but he has neither of those luxuries this week.
Abdullaev at -200 to win in Round 1 is fine if you feel compelled to bet this one, but I have no such compulsion myself. That's a fairly likely outcome, but two-to-one on a round prop isn't great odds, so I'll sit this one out and enjoy the violence.
Prediction: Abdullaev Round 1
Billy's Bet: Pass
Middleweight: Igor Cavalcanti (-238) vs. Oscar Ravello (+195)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
The other returning DWCS competitor this week is Igor Cavalcanti, who lost a reasonably close fight in 2024 to Seok Hyeon Ko, who is now 2-1 in the UFC. Since then Cavalcanti is 4-1 in MMA, plus has a boxing and kickboxing win.
Everything we saw in the fight against KO, as well as his follow-up performances, affirmed my previous scouting report on Cavalcanti. My pick in the Ko fight was Ko live, which worked out well as the powerful, aggressive Cavalcanti faded heavily deeper into the fight. All 13 of his professional wins are in the first round, with both of his losses coming in fights that made it to a second frame.
Cavalcanti has a massive physical advantage over Ravello, a middleweight/welterweight tweener who doesn't even look especially big at 170lbs. The 13-3 Peruvian BJJ black belt has largely beaten lesser competition, with his losses coming when he steps up to higher-level opposition, including UFC standout Michael Morales. His grappling is better than his striking, with the latter being fairly technically sound but limited by his mediocre athleticism.
The danger for Cavalcanti here is that Ravello survives an early storm and the Brazilian hits a wall, as we've seen him do in the past. I'm less confident in Ravello to do so than a fighter like Ko, but it's always a concern for Cavalcanti.
I'm coming in prefight with a Cavalcanti and under 1.5 ticket (via "Fight Parlays" on DraftKings), but will be looking for live betting opportunities on Ravello should he make it deeper into the fight (and see big line movement his way). The likelier outcome here is Cavalcanti finding the finish, but it's good to be prepared in case he doesn't.
Prediction: Cavalcanti via KO
Billy's Bet: Cavalcanti & Under 1.5 Rounds -150 (DraftKings)
Welterweight: Mayton Perea (-118) vs. Zevan Hunt (-102)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
Speaking of Michael Morales, one of his primary training partners, Mayton Perea, gets a shot to join him in the UFC this week. The 8-3 Perea is a massive welterweight, looking to be a bit bigger than Morales in most of the pictures of them together. I'm not sure how he makes the 170lbs limit — and he needed extended time to get there this week — but he manages to, which gives him a massive edge over almost everyone he fights.
A former international-level Greco Roman wrestler, you wouldn't know it by watching Perea fight. He's primarily a striker, who looks to tempt opponents into biting on his feints before unleashing big counter shots. Nothing he does is exceptionally sneaky, but his size and athleticism make it dangerous.
Greco is typically a fairly poor base for MMA since lower-body takedowns aren't allowed, but I can see how it works for Perea. The vast majority of his opponents want to crash into close range to avoid his reach, but his background makes him tough to take down from the inside. He's somewhat vulnerable to fighters who shoot well from range, but he's improved his takedown deterrence as his career has gone on, largely by managing range better and forcing his opponents to fight backing up.
Perea is still raw, but has all the physical tools to be a real contender at 170lbs.
Zevan Hunt is effectively the inverse of that. He has no real elite physical tools, but is technical in all aspects. He's a BJJ black belt with solid boxing who mixes the martial arts very well, constantly looking to land strikes on opponents who are trying to grapple, and improve his position when opponents switch to striking mode. He also operates well in the clinch, mixing in knees and elbows at every available opportunity. With his smaller frame, he'll have an edge there if he can get inside of Perea's reach, though that's going to be a tough task.
Hunt is a better fighter than the sum of his parts due to his ability to quickly transition between phases, but has a limited ceiling athletically. I'm also concerned that he's relied on his length too much, getting away with the bad version of "tall man defense" and pulling his chin up and back when facing shorter opponents. He obviously won't have that option here, as Perea can find said chin from a distance.
As much as I'd love to root for a scrappy technician who is overcoming physical limitations to succeed at a high level, I can't quite get there on Hunt. Perea looks to be making massive fight-to-fight strides, and has too many advantages here.
With the line also moving towards Perea I feel even better about trusting him. The best price is -115 at Caesars, but I'd play his moneyline down to -145.
Prediction: Perea via KO
Billy's Bet: Perea -115 (Caesars)
