Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade UFC 261 Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, April, 21)

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade UFC 261 Betting Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, April, 21) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured, from left: Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade.

  • Jessica Andrade vies for the Flyweight Title against Valentina "The Bullet" Shevchenko at UFC 261 on Saturday night.
  • Shevchenko has a clear edge, which is reflected in her -455 moneyline odds, but Sean Zerillo explains why there's ample reason to bet on a colossal upset bid from Andrade.
  • Check out Zerillo's UFC 261 betting guide below, with odds, projections and analysis, plus how he's betting Shevchenko vs. Andrade on Saturday.

Shevchenko vs. Andrade Odds

Shevchenko odds
-455
Andrade odds
+350
Over/Under
4.5 (-110 / -121)
Venue
Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena, Fla.
Time
Approx. 11 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN PPV
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Andrade, the former strawweight champion, is looking to win UFC gold in her second fight at Flyweight against the highly regarded Shevchenko.

Valentina closed as one of the most significant favorites (-2500, implied 96.1%) in UFC history against Jennifer Maia and lost the second round on all three scorecards in her last fight. Her live odds dropped down to near -600 (implied 86%) prior to Round 3, before winning the final 15 minutes.

“The Bullet” no longer seems as invincible as she used to be — and perhaps a test from Andrade, who will push a frenetic pace, will bring the best out of one of the world’s most talented fighters.

But, does Andrade have the tools to pull off the huge upset and capture a title in a second UFC division?

Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Shevchenko Andrade
Record 20-3 21-8
Avg. Fight Time 17:18 10:12
Height 5’5″ 5’1″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 66″ 62″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth March 7, 1988 Sept. 25, 1991
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.98 6.38
SS Accuracy 50% 49%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.03 5.26
SS Defense 62% 53%
Take Down Avg 2.21 3.11
TD Acc 58% 57%
TD Def 75% 76%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.4

Shevchenko has obvious physical advantages (four inches taller, four inches of reach). Still, Andrade carries the power edge and may have improved cardio without undergoing a difficult weight cut to 115.

In a technical kickboxing matchup, Shevchenko wins against Andrade every time. She can use her movement and speed to pick off Andrade at a distance, while she also possesses a deeper gas tank to maintain her output late in the fight.

But, if Andrade can dirty up the proceedings — press a pace, back Shevchenko up against the cage, and slam her to her back — then she has the tools to win minutes here.

The bigger question mark is whether Andrade can maintain that pace long enough to win three rounds. But at current odds, it’s worth the gamble.

If her wrestling was better (57% takedown accuracy, 3.11 takedowns landed per 15 minutes), then I would give Andrade an even better chance of winning this fight. But if she can bully Valentina to the cage, put Valentina on her back (75% takedown defense), and keep her there for a round, then the cardio gap should start to close.

Andrade has the statistical edges (+1.12 to +0.95 in strike differential; +3.4 strikes landed per minute) to score points if she can maintain that output.

She could — and likely will — become over-aggressive. So, opportunities for Shevchenko to finish should be there.

But Andrade has several paths to victory too, and at her current price, I think she’s undervalued.


Shevchenko vs. Andrade Pick

I project Andrade to win this fight 26% of the time (implied odds of +288), and I would play Andrade’s moneyline down to +333: At roughly a 3% edge compared to my projection.

I don’t see value in betting the fight to end inside the distance (projected -117, listed -130), and the only winning method prop close to showing value is Andrade by KO/TKO (projected +608, listed +600). Still, I obviously prefer the value on her moneyline.

The Pick: 

  • Jessica Andrade (+350 at DraftKings, play to +333)

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