UFC 274 Betting Odds: Public on Justin Gaethje After Charles Oliveira Misses Weight, Split on Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje
Two titles are on the line at UFC 274 on Saturday night, but after Charles Oliveira missed weight, the stakes are a little different.
Oliveira officially weighed in at 155.5 pounds, a half-pound over the limit. As a result, he will vacate his lightweight belt once his match against Justin Gaethje begins. Only Gaethje can win the belt on Saturday in the main event.
The entire situation moved betting odds.
Oliveira originally opened as a -150 favorite but was around -165 before weigh-ins on Friday. Since then, he’s moved to -140 with few bettors wanting to jump on the champion.
According to data released by BetMGM on Saturday morning, Oliveira is receiving just 22% of the bets. Meanwhile, Gaethje’s odds have moved from +130 to +115 while taking 78% of bets and over 80% of the total money.
Gaethje has won five of his last six fights, including the No. 1 contender match against Michael Chandler. His lone loss was a title fight to the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Oliveira is riding a 10-fight win streak with his most recent wins coming over Dustin Poirier, Chandler and Tony Ferguson.
The UFC has said if Oliveira wins, his next fight would be for the vacated belt. If Gaethje wins, he’s the champion.
Bettors are much more undecided about the co-main event between champion Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza. It’s a rematch from a 2014 fight that saw Esparza win by submission.
“Thug” Rose is 9-2 since then and has rattled off three in a row after losing her belt to Jessica Andrade in May 2019. She avenged that loss with a win over Andrade in 2020 before going back to back against Weili Zhang.
Esparza is 8-4 since the win over Namajunas with five of those victories coming since 2019. Four of those wins came via decision; her most recent win over Xiaonan Yan came by TKO.
Namajunas has stretched out to a sizable betting favorite. After opening at -160, the champion is now -225 at BetMGM. The handle is down the middle, but 54% of bets are on the +185 underdog Esparza.
Elsewhere on the main pay-per-view card, over 80% of bets are taking a chance on +300 longshot Tony Ferguson against Michael Chandler (-400). Ovince St. Preux (-250) and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (+200) are split on bets, but 65% of the handle is on the underdog.
Donald Cerrone is a -175 favorite over Joe Lauzon (+145) in the first bout of the main card. Over 70% of the money is on Cerrone.