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UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon: Time to Fade ‘Paddy the Baddy’ (Saturday, December 10)

UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon: Time to Fade ‘Paddy the Baddy’ (Saturday, December 10) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon Odds

Pimblett Odds
-250
Gordon Odds
+210
Over/Under
2.5 (+120 / -150)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Time
11:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ PPV
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

The final UFC pay-per-view of the year goes down this Saturday and is headlined by a vacant light heavyweight title fight between former champion Jan Blachowicz and rising contender Magomed Ankalaev. However, all eyes have been on the UFC 282 co-main event, which has Paddy Pimblett taking on his stiffest test to date, Jared Gordon.

Pimblett is looking to continue his ascent in the UFC and push his winning streak inside the promotion to four.

Looking to spoil the rise of Pimblett is Gordon, who looks to build upon his victory over Leonardo Santos back in September and get a winning streak going.

Can Pimblett keep his hype train on the tracks? Or will Gordon derail his plans and pull off the big upset in UFC 282’s pay-per-view co-headliner?

Read on to find out how much of a chance Gordon stands and if there is any way we can make money on this fight.

Tale of the Tape

Pimblett Gordon
Record 19-3 19-5
Avg. Fight Time 5:20 11:47
Height 5’10” 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 73″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 1/3/1995 9/6/1988
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.19 5.53
SS Accuracy 53% 58%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.00 3.11
SS Defense 41% 57%
Take Down Avg 1.88 1.97
TD Acc 40% 39%
TD Def 60% 58%
Submission Avg 4.7 0.0

Pimblett burst onto the MMA scene back in late 2016 after picking up a win over veteran Julian Erosa under the Cage Warriors banner. He was being talked about as the next Conor McGregor, who was still climbing in fame and notoriety.

Pimblett’s fan base was rabid, and he would always bring the eyeballs with his personality alone. It is rumored that the UFC offered him a contract back then, but “Baddy” refused it because he believed he deserved more money. Unfortunately for him, future UFC fighter Nad Narimani derailed the hype train in his next fight, and Pimblett was forced to go back to the drawing board.

After the Narimani fight, Pimblett put together a 3-1 run with Cage Warriors and then finally signed with the UFC in 2021. He has had action-packed matchups with and faced adversity in every single fight, but he’d managed to come back and get his hand raised.

Pimblett’s main strength is his grappling, though he throws with heat when on the feet. He does make some technical mistakes, which is where opponents are able to capitalize, but his durability and determination make him live for a comeback in any fight.

Gordon will be fighting in his 12th UFC bout this weekend while looking to improve upon his 7-4 record under their banner. Upon arriving in the big show, Gordon made his gritty and pressure style known from the get-go with dominating performances in his first two fights.

Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon #UFC282 pic.twitter.com/sLanKk8Qc2

— Helen Yee (@HelenYeeSports) December 10, 2022

The chink in Gordon’s armor at times seems to be his durability; all of his losses have come from him being rocked and then finished.

We can cut Gordon some slack considering the level of competition he came up short against as I’m sure those guys would do the same to Pimblett.

At his best, Gordon is a grinding pressure fighter. He keeps his foot on the gas the entire time and looks to drown his opponents. Forward movement and pressure are the name of the game with him. If he feels he has a grappling edge over his opponents, his wrestling is there. If he feels he can stay in the face of his opponent with strikes, his striking is there.

Pimblett vs. Gordon Pick

The big hold-up I think a lot of people will have with Gordon this weekend is his durability. Things could be looking great for 14 minutes until Pimblett finally finds the target and puts down Gordon.

However, to trust someone as a -250 favorite to hopefully find the chin of his opponent is a recipe for disaster. Of course, Pimblett could have some success should this fight hit the mat, but I’m not sold on his ability to effectively deal with someone who will constantly be putting him on his heels.

I really believe that Pimblett’s hype outweighs his talent, which is why we’ll always get a decent enough line to fade him until he takes his first loss in the UFC. Don’t get me wrong: I do think he is deserving of being in the UFC, but we need to bring some reality as to how far he can go in the promotion.

I have been waiting for the right moment to pounce and fade the Pimblett hype train, and I think we have a good enough line and fighter to do it on Saturday at UFC 282.

I think we see Gordon keep the pressure on Pimblett, grind him out, and get his hand raised by decision victory. But there’s no need to get cute with props; we are getting great odds on Gordon’s moneyline already, and I would back Gordon down to +150.

The Pick: Jared Gordon (+210 at DraftKings)

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