UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan: A Possible Piece for Your Round Robin (Saturday, March 4)

UFC 285 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan: A Possible Piece for Your Round Robin (Saturday, March 4) article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Ian Garry of Ireland

  • Ian Garry is one of the heavy favorites on tonight's UFC 285 card.
  • He takes on fellow welterweight Song Kenan, who returns from a long layoff that followed a KO loss.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo explains why it could be hard to extract betting value from this UFC 285 prelim matchup.

Ian Garry vs. Song Kenan Odds

Garry Odds
Kenan Odds
1.5 (-108 / -118)
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
7:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.

Undefeated Ian Garry looks to make it 4-0 in the UFC when he takes on Song Kenan at UFC 285.

The welterweight bout closes out the early preliminary card for UFC 285.

Is Garry the rightful favorite here, or are bettors sleeping on heavy underdog Kenan, who's the far the more experienced fighter of the two?

Let's look at the matchup for the closing bout of the UFC 285 prelims.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:407:27
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)74"71"
Date of birth11/17/19973/10/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min5.954.39
SS Accuracy56%46%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.344.37
SS Defense52%54%
Take Down Avg0.430.00
TD Acc50%0%
TD Def75%50%
Submission Avg0.00.0

I'm still unsure what to make of = Garry as a prospect. He's long for the division (three inches taller, three-inch reach advantage against = Kenan) and has a well-rounded skillset.

Still, he doesn't seem particularly powerful, strong or specialized in any singular area. He throws the same combinations repeatedly and rarely goes to his grappling when he has a clear advantage.

On Saturday, he has a clear grappling edge against Song, a powerful striker with poor takedown defense (50%).

Garry can win the fight standing, but he should be entirely out of danger if he secures takedowns and top position.

Garry vs. Kenan Pick

I expect Garry to find opportunities to find his first UFC (and second career) submission if he pursues a grappling-heavy game plan.

Garry by decision (projected +273, listed +290 at FanDuel) or Garry by submission (projected +646, listed +750 at BetRivers) are options.

I would consider that submission prop in a Round Robin (to +600); otherwise, I will pass on betting on this fight.

The Pick: Pass

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