UFC 296 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida: Take Underdog in Featherweight Slugfest (Saturday, December 16)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Lucas Almeida of Brazil
Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida Odds
Lucas Almeida will look to steal some shine from Andre Fili when they meet on Saturday's UFC 296 early preliminary card.
Fili makes his 21st UFC appearance when he meets Contender Series vet Almeida, who's 1-1 since joining the promotion.
Let's look at the Fili vs. Almeida odds, pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Fili | Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-10 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:08 | 10:54 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight | 145.5 pounds | 146 pounds |
| Reach | 74 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/25/1990 | 1/31/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.83 | 5.29 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.13 | 5.29 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.22 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 0% |
| TD Def | 69% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Fili, 33, has a 10-9-1 record for the UFC over his 10-year run in the promotion.
Fili's fairly consistently beat lower-level fighters but struggled against "name" opponents – with just one win in his last five contests, a split-decision victory over Bill Algeo.
Early in his UFC run, Fili made a lot of headway with his grappling, but he has just two takedowns combined over his last five fights. Late-stage Fili has morphed more into a brawler. He uses his length and height to keep opponents at bay while throwing barrages of strikes.
Fili can be picked apart on the feet by more technical opponents, but his high output can overwhelm lesser fighters.
Which makes the matchup with Almeida very interesting. Almeida is just 1-1 in the UFC proper with a knockout win over Michael Trizano and a submission loss to Pat Sabatini. Neither of those gives us much information about his level since Sabatini is an elite grappler and Trizano is a fairly mediocre fighter by UFC standards.
With that said, I was impressed by Almeida's striking in the tape I watched. He throws good counters, and he mixes in kicks well at the end of exchanges. His defense left a lot to be desired, but we could say the same about Fili.
Fili vs. Almeida Pick
Either guy looking like the superior striker seems entirely plausible here, and both are far better offensively than defensively.
I'd line this one much closer to a coin flip than the current odds, so I'll somewhat-begrudgingly take a stab at Almeida's moneyline.
"Fight to end inside the distance" also makes a lot of sense, but the -205 odds are a bit long for my tastes.
The Pick: Lucas Almeida (+145 at Caesars)
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