UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas: Bet on KO in Curtain-Jerker (Saturday, May 4)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC flyweight Kevin Borjas of Peru
Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas Odds
| Costa Odds | -130 |
| Borjas Odds | +102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -110) |
| Location | Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 301 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 301 event kicks off with a flyweight curtain-jerker between two unranked flyweight contenders as Alessandro Costa takes on Kevin Borjas at 125 pounds.
The steam is on Borjas in this matchup. He opened at +125 and is now listed as short as +108 at the time of writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the underdog in my Costa vs. Borjas preview for UFC 301.
Tale of the Tape
| Costa | Borjas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 9-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:04 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/28/1996 | 12/6/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.75 | 5.40 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.61 | 6.63 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.31 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 16% | 0% |
| TD Def | 90% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
UFC 301 kicks off with a bout that has Fight of the Night potential. Alessandro Costa and Kevin Borjas are both absolute dogs and try to put on a show every time they step foot in the octagon.
With that in mind, I made this fight closer to a pick'em as I believe either guy can catch the other just as easily. Therefore, I think the value is on Borjas in this spot.
Each of their .500 records in the UFC is not representative of the talent level attached to it. Costa's two losses are to Steve Erceg (who is fighting for the 125-pound title in Saturday's UFC 301 main event) and Amir Albazi (the No. 3-ranked contender in the division).
On the other hand, Borjas is coming off a loss to Joshua Van, who looks to be a legit rising prospect at flyweight. While I am high on Van, he is certainly not at the point of either Erceg or Albazi (yet), which is probably the main reason oddsmakers are giving Costa the slight edge.
However, that doesn't concern me. Borjas would also fight top guys if he were offered the opportunities; they just haven't come yet. Borjas is going to carry a one-inch height and reach advantage, which is always beneficial in a fight that is expected to be contested on the feet.
Borjas also throws in higher volume than Costa, which increases the likelihood of the underdog landing first.
Costa vs. Borjas Pick
I would be shocked if the judges are relied upon in this bout, and oddsmakers agree as the "fight doesn't go to decision" prop is listed at a chalky -155.
Both guys will likely stand and bang, but Borjas is probably more dangerous in this department, and we know Costa is capable of shooting for takedowns and hunting for submissions. Borjas' takedown defense isn't spectacular by any means, but it is good enough to keep this scrap primarily on the feet.
Once there, I think this fight is a toss-up, with Borjas having an edge due to his volume, height and reach. Subsequently, I think the best value in this bout is on his KO/TKO prop at +275 via DraftKings or BetMGM.
It's also worth noting that eight of Borjas' nine professional wins have come by KO/TKO while Costa has been knocked out in two of his four losses.
The Pick: Kevin Borjas by KO/TKO (+275 at DraftKings)
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