UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino: Contrarian Bet on Big Favorite (Saturday, May 4)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Vitor Petrino of Brazil
Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino Odds
| Smith Odds | +380 |
| Petrino Odds | -530 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-220 / +160) |
| Location | Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ PPV |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 301 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 301 main card features two light heavyweight contenders as Anthony Smith (ranked No. 10) puts his number on the line against unranked Vitor Petrino at 205 pounds.
The steam is heavy on Petrino in this matchup; he opened at -440 and is now listed at -650 via BetRivers at the time of writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Smith vs. Petrino preview for UFC 301.
Tale of the Tape
| Smith | Petrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 37-19 | 11-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:57 | 11:40 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205.5 lbs. | 206 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/26/1988 | 8/28/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.21 | 2.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.47 | 2.49 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 45% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.49 | 3.86 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 68% |
| TD Def | 48% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.8 |
I am an Anthony Smith fan just as much as the next guy, but at what point is enough enough?
He's lost three of his past four fights and is on track to make it four of five as he enters this matchup as a massive +420 underdog on the moneyline.
Even that one win was highly controversial as he got the nod via split decision. Nine of the 14 media scores gave the fight to opponent Ryan Spann.
The one thing I will give credit to Smith for at this stage of his career is that he is tough as hell, probably too much for his own good. He made it to the scorecards against Johnny Walker and Aleksander Rakic, two decision losses to guys known for their devastating knockout power.
Smith even made it to the third round against Khalil Rountree Jr. before the ref mercifully stepped over Smith as Rountree stood over him.
Khalil Rountree held back from landing a final blow on Anthony Smith 💥 #UFCVegas83pic.twitter.com/mF0OJNGat7
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) December 10, 2023
While Vitor Petrino also carries a ton of power and could just as well get Smith out of there early, Smith survived both Walker and Rakic, so he can survive Petrino.
Nobody is starching Smith, so Petrino will have to accumulate a lot of damage to hope for a late stoppage.
Smith vs. Petrino Pick
It's not like Smith isn't competitive. He can get in there and hang on for a bit, but Father Time is undefeated and Smith's amount of cage time has caught up to him.
The one thing that has held up for him is his chin, and though he got stopped by Rountree, I don't think he will by Petrino. The massive favorite is fighting for a ranking here and will get one regardless of how he wins, so I expect a patient fight as he looks to pick apart Smith as the fight wages on.
We just saw Petrino do this in his most recent fight against Tyson Pedro, which he won by a dominant unanimous decision effort. Petrino showcased his grappling and wrestling in that fight as well with three takedowns and north of five minutes of control time.
While Petrino carries a ton of power, I could also see him going this route against Smith as well. Either way, I think Smith can survive to the bell, but that is probably the most we'll get from the veteran.
The Pick: Vitor Petrino by Decision (+245 at BetRivers)
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