UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Elves Brener vs Myktybek Orolbai: Value With This Prop (Saturday, May 4)

Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

Saturday's UFC 301 preliminary card features two unranked lightweight contenders as Elves Brener takes on Myktybek Orolbai at 155 pounds.

The steam is slightly on Orolbai in this matchup; he opened at -250 and is now listed at -265 via FanDuel at the time of writing.

I agree with the live movement, and here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Brener vs. Orolbai preview for UFC 301.

Tale of the Tape

Myktybek Orolbai made a statement in his UFC debut last fall with a submission victory (neck crank) over Uros Medic, the latter of whom just starched Tim Means at last week's fight night event in Las Vegas.

Orolbai was a takedown machine in his win over Medic, landing seven of his 10 takedown attempts in under two rounds of work.

There is no reason to deviate from that flawless game plan in this matchup against Elves Brener. Yes, Brener is a submission threat, but he also carries a ton of power and is coming in fresh off two consecutive KO victories.

If I'm Orolbai, I'm sticking with what made me beat a guy of Medic's caliber: I'd avoid Brener's power with a relentless wrestling attack.

I think Orolbai will be more cautious at throwing submission attempts in this specific matchup and instead will focus more on controlling position on the mat and racking up control time.

By the same logic, a wrestling game plan is most likely Orolbai's clearest path to victory given that Brener has never been knocked out or submitted in 19 professional fights. Brener has, however, lost by decision three times.

Brener vs. Orolbai Pick

Another reason to like this wrestling-style game plan from Orolbai is that he has traditionally fought at 170 pounds, like he did against Medic in his UFC debut. However, as we see time and again, guys who make the big jump to the world's biggest and best promotion realize they can probably make a weight class below what they've been fighting now that they have access to more resources.

Obviously, we have to wait and see how Orolbai's cut goes later this week, but assuming it goes well, he will end up being the larger and stronger fighter in this fight by the time they walk to the octagon on Saturday. I expect Orolbai to utilize that strength advantage to keep Brener pinned to the mat across all three rounds.

Oddsmakers agree with that sentiment as Orolbai's odds to win by decision are +150, which are shorter than his KO/TKO (+370) and submission (+500) odds. If you like the favorite in this fight, I think there is more value in taking his decision prop at +150 rather than laying -265 on the moneyline, given that a wrestling game plan to coast to a decision victory is Orolbai's clearest path to victory.

Finally, even during the exchanges on the feet, I trust Orolbai's chin to hold up since he has yet to be finished across 14 professional fights (and one amateur fight).

The Pick: Myktybek Orolbai by Decision (+150 at FanDuel)

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