UFC 301 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jack Shore vs Joanderson Brito: +380 Pick for Featured Prelim (Saturday, May 4)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Joanderson Brito of Brazil
Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito Odds
| Shore Odds | +155 |
| Brito Odds | -195 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-190 / +140) |
| Location | Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil |
| Time | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN2 |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 301 with our BetRivers promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Jack Shore vs. Joanderson Brito odds at UFC 301 on Saturday, May 4 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 301 featured prelim pits unranked featherweights Jack Shore and Joanderson Brito against one another at 145 pounds.
This line has hardly moved since opening.
Here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Shore vs. Brito preview for UFC 301.
Tale of the Tape
| Shore | Brito | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-1 | 16-3-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:54 | 6:37 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145.5 lbs. | 146 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/6/1995 | 2/11/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.84 | 3.32 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.20 | 2.62 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.42 | 3.40 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 75% |
| TD Def | 79% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Joanderson Brito enters this week amid a four-fight winning streak and looks to be on the cusp of a ranking with another win on Saturday. He is priced as a moderate favorite to do so at -167, and I believe he will get it done against Jack Shore.
Shore suffered his first professional loss nearly two years ago to Ricky Simon, and he's just fought one time since then with a rebound victory over Makwan Amirkhani.
However, that, and along with the majority of Shore's wins, have come against relatively weak competition. The one time he fought someone of Brito's level (Simon), Shore lost.
I'm not sold that Shore is the type of prospect many believed he was when he came over from Cage Warriors, and Brito will be a massive test to see if Shore has improved since he lost to Simon.
That loss to Simon at 135 pounds pushed Shore back to the 145-pound division. While he beat Amirkhani in this weight class, going against Brito (someone who is already big for the 145-pound division) is likely going to be a big problem for the undersized Shore.
I think the only reason that Brito is not getting ranked fighters yet is that this division is ducking him, at least while he doesn't have a number by his name. It's just not a good risk/reward proposition for fighters in the No. 10-15 range of the division, especially when you look at how good Brito has looked since joining the UFC.
Shore vs. Brito Pick
Instead of laying -167 on the favorite, I think the best way to back Brito on Saturday is by taking his decision prop at +380 via BetRivers. The only reason this number is so long is because of trends: Shore has never lost by decision while each of Brito's past four wins have come by a finish within the first two rounds.
That outcome is certainly possible against Shore, but there are a few reasons why it could go the distance.
First, I trust Shore's chin. He has never been knocked out across 18 professional and 12 amateur fights.
Second, and more importantly, I think Brito's strength is going to be a big problem for Shore on the mat.
When Brito inevitably mixes in the takedowns, I could see him just outwrestling Shore and coasting to a decision victory. Even when it stays on the feet, Shore can probably survive.
The Pick: Joanderson Brito by Decision (+380 at BetRivers)
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