Check out our UFC props for UFC 316 with our favorite long-shot prop bets for the Saturday, June 7 event.
We've got two title fights this weekend at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with both the men's and women's bantamweight belts up for grabs.
With 13 total fights, UFC 316 prop opportunities are plentiful, and the MMA Prop Squad has found two they like for tonight's card.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC 316 odds for matchups as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 36 with our DraftKings promo code!
UFC 316 Props – MMA Prop Squad Predictions
Billy Ward: Josh Van vs. Bruno Silva
MMA Writer and Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Bruno Silva was quietly on an impressive run heading into his December fight against Manel Kape, with four straight stoppage wins in which he scored seven knockdowns across the three fights.
His momentum was (predictably) halted by Kape, a top-five flyweight who came into that bout as a huge favorite.
Now Silva finds himself as a big underdog again, as he takes on 23 year-old prospect Josh Van.
This will be Van's eighth UFC fight in less than two years since joining the promotion, and he has a 6-1 record to date. His lone loss was a knockout against Charles Johnson, which was just the second knockout in 11 UFC fights for Johnson.
Van is a slick technical striker who throws with absurd volume, landing over eight significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs more than five per minute. Most flywweights lack the power necessary to truly punish Van for his defensive indifference, but Silva clearly has the power to put Van down if he's landing strikes at that high of a clip.
I also don't see Silva winning a decision here, as Van's elite volume plays very well to the judges. If we hit the scorecards, it's hard to see Silva ending up with his hand raised.
Due to that, I would line Silva's finish odds very close to his +525 moneyline. However, he's +800 to win by stoppage at DraftKings.
I'll be taking a sprinkle at that, as well as his "finish only" moneyline of +400. That bet would get refunded in the case of a Van decision, which I view as the likeliest outcome here.
Sean Zerillo and I discussed this fight at the end of our UFC Betting Preview this week:
The Pick: Bruno Silva Inside the Distance +800 (DraftKings)
John Lanfranca: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Yes, I expect Kayla Harrison to get the win and become the new women’s bantamweight champion. I don’t even really have an issue with the price of the moneyline, even if it does error on the side of being a bit too wide. I do, however, believe there is a path for Pena to weather the early storm and come out the other side in rounds 3, 4 and 5 with a real chance to win.
Juliana Pena has a few things going for her that I like in an underdog longshot. First, she spams volume and has the cardio to do it for all five rounds. She also has shown the ability to make the fight a scrappy and ugly affair, which is probably why people consider her one of the least skilled champions in the organization.
We’ve seen Kayla Harrison fatigue in her career, and she has lost a decision before in late 2022 to a fighter not of the ilk of somebody like Pena. Pena is tough enough to survive the onslaught of time underneath the physically stronger Harrison. If Harrison expends just a little too much energy in the first ten minutes or so, we could see a very different fight in the second half of this bout.
Remember, all of the pressure is on Kayla Harrison to become the new champion. That is the only way Amanda Nunes comes out of retirement, which is what the UFC badly wants.
The Pick: Juliana Pena by decision +1200 (DraftKings)
Bryan Fonseca: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
Julianna Peña is a heavy underdog for this fight, and I get it.
Kayla Harrison is damn near indestructible, it appears. But this weight cut for Harrison, 34, is extreme. Harrison has said she walks around at 165 naturally, and assuming she's telling the truth, that's a 30-pound cut.
The former PFL star was previously most known for her run at the top of the women's 155-pound lightweight division in the lesser PFL Harrison went 15-1 in PFL and was 16-1 before joining the UFC, losing only to Larissa Pacheco in a stunner three years ago, though Harrison had beaten her twice prior.
Additionally, of her 17 pre-UFC bouts, Harrison fought under 155 pounds just twice — once a 145-pound featherweight in an appearance at Invicta in November 2020 and a 150-pound catchweight win over UFC alum Aspen Ladd in her last PFL fight in late 2023.
To become UFC champion, she has no choice. She has to fight at 135, and she's heavily favored. But here's where I think Peña is live.
I like Harrison early. She has two career fights that went five rounds in her career. The first was against Pacheco in December of 2019, where she dominated all five rounds. The last was against Pacheco in November 2022, and she looked gassed at the end, dropping each of the last two rounds en route to a unanimous decision loss.
Peña has a win over Amanda Nunes from December 2021, legitimately one of the biggest upsets we've seen in the octagon. Her path to doing it here is survival. If Harrison is too drained as the fight progresses, and Peña is able to really use cardio to her advantage, she could stun people again, even with Harrison having nearly every physical and skill advantage — on paper — in this match-up.
John and I are seeing this fight the same way, but I'm happy to take a slightly worse price in case Pena finds a stoppage in the championship rounds.
The Pick: Julianna Peña to win in Rounds 4, 5 or by Decision +800 (FanDuel)
