Read our UFC 320 predictions for the Saturday, October 4 event live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. ET, with the main card shifting to ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 320 Moneyline Projections
UFC 320 Prop Projections
Fighter vs. Fighter
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Yoo is a strong boxer, with a 4" reach advantage, but Santos is the more aggressive striker and the superior grappler, with better wins and a more battle-tested strength of schedule.
Both fighters are hittable, defending roughly 50% of opposing strikes, compared to 60%+ for elite defensive strikers. However, neither has suffered a knockout loss in their professional careers, and I believe that Santos has the better hardware of the pair.
Yoo scored a knockout win over Jeka Saragih in his promotional debut, but I don't rate that win as anything better than a Contender Series victory, nor do I view him as a future champion or title contender, given that he is already 31 years old.
I'd expect Willycat to weaponize his pace and pressure over 15 minutes, and to find himself controlling Yoo from top position for significant portions of the fight.
Take the favorite on the moneyline, and consider his decision prop (projected +130, listed +185) with both fighters cutting fewer pounds for this catchweight bout.
The Pick: Daniel Santos -148 (DraftKings)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
We're rapidly approaching a cleaned-out bantamweight division, with Merab Dvalishvili taking on an opponent who comes into the fight with a win streak of just one. That would be Cory Sandhagen, who prior to picking up a TKO via injury over Deiveson Figueiredo, was thoroughly dominated over five rounds by Umar Nurmagomedov.
That would be the same Umar Nurmagomedov that Dvalishvili beat handily in what was viewed at the time as the most credible threat to Dvalishvili's extended title reign. He handed the previously unseated Nurmagomedov the first loss of his career, and picked up seven takedowns on a fighter whom nobody else had been able to even land one on.
The scariest part about all of that is that Merab continues to improve each fight. After five straight decision wins he submitted Sean O'Malley in the third round of their fight, and has looked more comfortable striking with each passing fight, including outstriking O'Malley on the feet.
All of which makes it hard to see a path for success for Sandhagen here. He's anthropomorphically similar to O'Malley with an identical height but shorter reach, and Merab has solved that puzzle multiple times now. He's nowhere near the wrestler that Nurmagomedov is — and Dvalishvili was the better wrestler in that matchup. He's also only about a year younger, so it's hard to say that he'll catch Dvalishvili on the back end of his prime.
Which is why I'm thrilled that the -5.5 point spread bet on the reigning champion is just -125 at DraftKings. Those are much easier lines to cover than the -3.5s given out in three-round fights, as Dvalishvili could still drop a round and cover that line.
While he technically failed to cover the price in his two decision title wins, both of which came by a five-point margin, he almost certainly deserved the cover in at least one, if not both, of those matchups. Plus, any finish obviously covers this price as well, and with Sandhagen playing fairly aggressive jiu-jitsu from his back I like Dvalishvili's chances at picking up a stoppage here.
The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili -5.5 -125 (DraftKings)
