Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images. Pictured: MacKenzie Dern
Read our UFC 321 predictions for the Saturday, October 25 event live from the Etihad Arena in Dubai, UAE. The prelim card airs on ESPN+ starting at 10:00 a.m. ET, with the main card officially starting at 2:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Azagt Maksum is the much more talented fighter on paper in this flyweight matchup, though both he and Mitch Raposo come in on two-fight losing streaks.
Maksum hasn't been able to put it together in the UFC, though, entering as an undefeated prospect but needing a split decision against 39-year-old Tyson Nam to secure his lone UFC victory. Since then, he's dropped consecutive unanimous decisions, but then showed up three pounds overweight for his UFC 321 matchup.
That's a concerning sign for a fighter on the wrong side of 30 who was already big for the division. That many heavyweight cuts seemingly have finally got the better of him, which raises questions about both his durability and his cardio for this fight.
Raposo is also undefeated outside of UFC-affiliated fights, with losses on the Contender Series and Ultimate Fighter, plus an 0-2 record in the UFC proper. However, both of those losses were split decisions, and he's never been knocked down in the UFC or out as a professional, with solid overall durability.
His point spread is set at +5.5 at DraftKings, while the typical underdog gets only +3.5 points. If Raposo can survive all three rounds, he won't even need to win a round unanimously to cover that prop, so long as he doesn't get swept 30-27 on all three scorecards. Given Maksum's struggle on the scale, I believe there's a strong chance Raposo takes over late, and that would be more than enough to cover this prop at -110.
I'd also be interested in his alternate point spread of +3.5 (+120) or even his +380 moneyline, if you're interested in taking a bigger swing/
This title fight is currently lined at a similar price to the initial three-round fight from UFC 256; I bet Jandiroba in that fight, but only project value on the goes-to-decision prop (projected -171, listed -105) for the rematch, compared to a divisional average of 67% in three-round strawweight fights, and 69% in title bouts.
Jandiroba is the slightly more efficient striker (-0.8 to -1.4 differential per minute), although neither woman is particularly effective on the feet. She's also the superior control wrestler, averaging more takedowns and controlling a higher percentage of grappling exchanges than Dern (77% vs. 64%), who is often content to hunt for submissions off her back.
Jandiroba has the more reliable top pressure of the pair. Still, she only proactively pursued a takedown in the second round of their first fight—the round she won—and likely ceded the result by getting up from top position with just a few minutes remaining in that matchup.
Dern is the more dynamic submission grappler, and her striking has arguably improved more between the pair, relative to the first matchup I also trust the younger fighter a bit more in the championship rounds; Jandiroba is 37-years-old- well above the divisional age curve – and hasn't fought beyond the 15-minute mark since defeating Mizuki Inoue via split for the Invicta title in 2018.
Bet the distance or decision prop to -155, and consider adding Dern to win by decision (projected +197, listed +260) or Jandiroba by decision (projected +240, listed +300) either as a straight bet or as a round robin leg.
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