We had a fun PPV last weekend, and we're staying on the road this week. The UFC heads to Atlanta, where former champion Kamaru Usman meets Joaquin Buckley in the main event.
We've got 13 fights on the card in total, which airs on ESPN+ starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 316 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Atlanta Predictions & Luck Ratings
Joaquin Buckley (-258) vs. Kamaru Usman (+210)
On the one hand, my Luck Ratings methodology probably should favor Kamaru Usman here.
Each of his last two fights were majority decision losses, and his fight before that was a dominant performance over four rounds spoiled by a Leon Edwards head kick in the final frame.
On the other hand, he's 38 years old and hasn't fought in more than 18 months, with his last win coming in 2021. Four of his six welterweight title wins came against Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal, who even at the time weren't truly top contenders.
Buckley finished Covington back in December, his sixth straight win since dropping down to 170lbs. He's looked like a future champion at his new weight class, and is seven years younger than Usman.
The saving grace for Usman might be that this could be the first time Buckley has to fight past three rounds. The Covington win was his first scheduled five-round affair, but ended in the third.
Still, that makes him a better prop or live betting candidate than prefight option. As far as the moneyline right now, it's about right.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Rose Namajunas (-258) vs. Miranda Maverick (+210)
The Women's flyweight division is quietly stacked with talent, and two ranked members are competing in the co-main event on Saturday.
Rose Namajuans is a former strawweight champion who moved up a weight class in 2023, with mixed results so far. She's 2-2 at 125lbs, with wins over Tracy Cortez and Amanda Ribas (who primarily competes at strawweight) and losses to top contenders Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot.
Maverick is on a four fight winning streak at 125, and looks to be continuing to improve at just 27 years old.
Maverick opened at +230 on DraftKings and has already been somewhat bet down, an assessment I agree with. Like the women who bested Namajuans at 125lbs, Maverick will have a noticeable size and strength edge, which should help her execute her typical grappling-heavy game plan.
The best current line is +225 at Caesars.
Verdict: Miranda Maverick Undervalued
Rodolfo Bellato (-375) vs. Paul Craig (+295)
This fight is about right from a moneyline perspective, but I wanted to highlight a specific angle early in the week so bettors could be on the lookout when that market becomes available.
That is, of course, Craig via KO, which was my pick when this fight was originally booked.
We're unlikely to get the +2500 odds we got that time, especially since the moneyline has moved towards Craig somewhat after Bellato had to withdraw due to herpes the first time they attempted this fight.
However, if we see even half that I'm jumping on it right away, so keep your eyes open when the prop market opens up.
Verdict: Fairly Valued — but Look for Craig KO Odds.
Edmen Shahbazyan (-180) vs. Andre Petroski (+150)
We've already seen some line movement on this fight, with early to open books posting Petroski around +175 before quickly moving that number in.
The best available line on Petroski now is +163 at BetRivers, and I don't expect that to last long.
Petroski makes sense from both a Luck Ratings and stylistic standpoint. He's 8-2 in the UFC, with his two losses coming on an extremely short notice booking against Michel Pereira, and a freak knockout where Petroski hit his head on Jacob Malkoun's hip while attempting a takedown (after winning the first round on all three scorecards).
Shahbazyan has also lost to essentially every high level grappler he's faced, with a 2-2 record in his last four that includes a loss via submission and one via ground and pound. Petroski is a BJJ black belt and former D1 wrestler, so that should help him here.
Grab Petroski's moneyline while it's still north of +150, since we won't have that option much longer.
Verdict: Andre Petroski Undervalued
