UFC Dana White’s Contender Series Best Bets, Odds For Week 10 (Nov. 2)
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The final card of the season for the UFC’s Dana White’s Contender Series will take place on Tuesday.
All fighters made weight on Monday. There will be three undefeated fighters — including one undefeated fight.
The card will begin at 8 p.m. ET and airs on ESPN+.
All odds are according to DraftKings.
UFC Dana White’s Contender Series Odds, Best Bets Week 10
Juan Puerta vs. Zhifa Shang
Tuesday, Nov. 2. 8:15 p.m. ET
The first fight on the card will involve two veterans who have 67 professional fights between them.
Zhifa Shang is a 35-year-old submission master who is on a ridiculous 20 fight win streak.
Juan Puerta is no slouch of his own. He’s on an 11 fight win streak and is also a master at choking people out.
While Puerta has beaten the slightly better competition, I don’t think anything justifies Shang’s line at +165.
Shang has finished an absurd 14 out of the 20 fights during his streak and the remaining results left little room for interpretation.
Take Shang at plus money here to nab a contract — maybe even with a submission win, if your book allows for it.
Pick: Zhifa Shang +165 (1 unit)
Jonas Bilharinho vs. Canaan Kawaihae
Tuesday, Nov. 2. 8:45 p.m. ET
This second bout features a very interesting contrast in styles.
While Bilharinho has knocked out his opponent in six of his eight wins, Kawaihae primarily dabbles in submissions, which is the way he’s nabbed four of his six victories.
Bilharinho is the more experienced veteran of the two. He’s 31-years-old and has fought professionally since 2011.
Meanwhile, Kawaihae is 24 and didn’t start his amateur career until 2016.
Both fighters have been relatively inactive in recent years. Kawaihae hadn’t fought since 2018 until April, when he won a bout within 20 seconds with a ninja choke in the LFA.
Bilharinho last fought in Oct. 2019, when he won with a flying knee in the first round in the Future FC. Before that, he last fought in 2016.
Kawaihae fought on the Contender Series in 2018 but lost to Chase Hooper, who is now a regular on UFC cards.
Based on pure experience, Bilharinho has the slight edge. Kawaihae showed a little too much fatigue for my liking late in that Hooper fight — a fight Kawaihae had been well in the lead for. Against elite competition, late round stamina is vital.
Still, with the value at just +125, I’d only give Bilharinho a sprinkle, if that.
Pick: Jonas Bilharinho +125 (0.25 unit)
Lun Qiu vs. Erisson Ferreira
Tuesday, Nov. 2. 9:15 p.m. ET
This flyweight matchup is between two fighters who have had a very, very different last year and a half.
While Qiu has racked up his time in the octagon over the past 22 months — putting together seven fights over that timeframe — Ferreira has fought just once.
Ferreira’s last fight was before the pandemic in Feb. 2020 in a doctor stoppage win.
Qiu, meanwhile, has gone 4-3 over that timeframe, but has won his last three in commanding fashion.
If you like two dudes hacking at each other with their fists, this fight is for you. Both fighters can get overly aggressive and neither really have much of a submission game, though Qiu has won by chokeout before. Ferreira hasn’t.
They’re going to be wailing at each other for three rounds, if it even gets that far.
In my estimation, Qiu should be listed somewhere closer to +135. Both fighters have shown knockout power — all it takes is one punch.
At +350, I’m taking Qiu all the way.
Pick: Lun Qiu +350 (1 unit)
Justin Burlinson vs. Yohan Lainesse
Tuesday, Nov. 2. 9:45 p.m. ET
This fight between the undefeated Justin Burlinson out of England and the undefeated Canadian Yohan Lainesse will be a treat.
Burlinson has finished each of his six professional opponents, including three submissions and three knockouts.
Meanwhile, Lainesse is more of a traditional striker. He’s finished five of his seven fights — all on knockouts.
While I think the value on Lainesse +270 is incredibly tempting, this feels like a no bet written all over it.
Justin Burlinson is an absolute animal and hasn’t come close to losing a single round in his professional career.
It’s impossible to justify a wager on Burlinson, though, at his current price.
Even the under on rounds at 2.5 (-180) is a little too steep to justify, despite these fighters’ incredibly impressive finish rates. (Note that DraftKings and other major American sportsbooks don’t provide lines on over/under rounds.)
They’ve both shown their chins and I don’t expect Burlinson especially to be finished. If Burlinson loses, it’ll have to be via a methodical decision.
This one’s a no bet from me.
Pick: No Bet
Maheshate vs. Achilles Estremadura
Tuesday, Nov. 2. 10:15 p.m. ET
This bout features the best two names I think I’ve ever seen compete against each other in any sport, ever.
Maheshate is just 21-years-old and is coming off of a five fight win streak, including three KOs within 1.5 rounds.
Achilles Estremadura is the far more experienced fighter, having suited up at the amateur level beginning in 2010. He’s undefeated as a professional, but did have an amateur loss via unanimous decision in 2014.
Neither fighter has been finished in their careers, and I don’t expect to see it here, either.
If your book has it, bet on this one to go over 2.5 rounds at +105. Note again that DraftKings and other major American sportsbooks don’t provide lines on over/under rounds.
Pick: o2.5 rounds (+105) (1 unit)
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