Read our UFC Des Moines predictions for the Saturday, May 3, event at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and found plenty of value on the fight card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Des Moines Moneyline Projections
UFC Des Moines Prop Projections
John Lanfranca: Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
Mason Jones returns to the UFC after nearly three years, going 4-0 in Cage Warriors since his departure. Jones racked up three finish victories all the while sharpening his skills and it feels like now is time to display his readiness in making his mark on the UFC lightweight division.
His opponent, Jeremy Stephens is a familiar name for fight fans, but he finds himself a sizeable underdog at age 38 and not having competed in the organization since July of 2021.
It is fair to question the motivations of Stephens heading into an event taking place on his home turf. The likelihood he is signing up to get in the cage just once more feels quite high. Stephens may not have even been training MMA over the last couple of years considering he was only competing in boxing and bare knuckle contests, both of which do not involve grappling whatsoever.
The last we saw of Stephens in MMA was in the Professional Fighters League back in November of 2022. He was taken down and eventually submitted, which is also the way his run in the UFC concluded in 2017 against Mateusz Gamrot. For context, that submission by Gamrot is his only submission by Gamrot over the last seven years. In fact, over the last six years, Stephens has just one victory in MMA.
In Jones’ first UFC stint, he averaged 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and there is little doubt his coaches will be pushing for their fighter to drag this fight to the mat. Stephens, even at his advanced age, could cause problems for Jones in stand up exchanges, which is exactly what the veteran Stephens is hoping to induce.
Avoiding danger while simultaneously taking the path of least resistance for Mason Jones is clear – test Stephens’ ability and will to grapple. Stephens does not lack toughness and he will not be easy to finish with strikes, thus, grinding on him while the fight takes place on the mat and potentially capitalizing on his mistakes is the way for Jones to ensure he impresses in his return to the UFC organization.
The Pick: Mason Jones Submission or Decision -135 (Fanduel)
Billy Ward: Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhey Sidey
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 p.m. ET
It's been a weird career in the UFC for Serhey Sidey. Including his appearance on the Contender Series, he has a 2-1 record across three bouts. However, you could make a strong case that each and every one of those fights had the wrong winner.
On the Contender Series he scored a quick knockdown over Ramon Tavares that the referee immediately waved off, and was such an egregiously early stoppage that Dana White rebooked Tavares for another Contender Series fight immediately. When Tavares won that fight, that set up a rematch with Sidey.
Sidey won that fight on 100% of media scorecards, but lost on two of the official judges. Following that, Sidey fought Garret Armfield to a split decision that should've been given to Armfield, but instead went to Sidey. That makes three straight fights with at least some degree of controversy if not the outright wrong result.
Cameron Smotherman hasn't had that issue. He suffered a quick defeat on the Contender Series in 2023 when he was just 25, then went 3-0 on the regional circuit before getting a short notice call up and defeating Jake Hadley in October.
"The Baby-Faced Killer" is a slick boxer that both jabs and works the body well, something we don't see often in MMA. That's a very effective style against a fighter like Sidey, who likes to remain at range and fire kicks rather than mix it up in the pocket.
Smotherman is also much quicker with his hands than Sidey, and should be able to beat him to the punch in the bulk of the exchanges. I worry about Smotherman's ability to handle the grapplers of the division, but that's not a concern here. Neither he nor Sidey has attempted a takedown in any of their UFC bouts.
All things considered, I'd make Smotherman a slight favorite here if I was setting the line. Since we can get him as high as +120 on DraftKings, that's a big value.
The Pick: Cameron Smotherman +120 (DraftKings)
