UFC Fight Night Main Event Pick, Prediction & Odds: Is Jessica Eye Undervalued Against Cynthia Calvillo?
Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images. Pictured: Jessica Eye.
- The updated odds of tonight's UFC Fight Night main event list Jessica Eye as a +110 betting underdog to Cynthia Calvillo (-134 betting favorite).
- The fight opened close to a pick'em, but Calvillo has been bet up over the past 24 hours.
- Sean Zerillo analyzes the matchup including how's he's betting Saturday's action.
Eye vs. Calvillo Pick, Prediction & Odds for UFC Fight Night
- Jessica Eye odds: +110
- Cynthia Calvillo odds: -134
- Time: Saturday, 11 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex (Las Vegas, Nevada)
- Channel: ESPN
- BET NOW
Jessica Eye missed weigh-in, by a quarter-pound, for her second consecutive fight, and will forfeit 20% of her purse for what is now a catchweight main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
Fighters who have missed weight are 41-37 (53%) since 2013, at average odds of +102 (49.5%) and significant underdogs (>+300 odds) are 0-8, while all-other underdogs are 16-12 (57%), and sizable favorites (>-186 odds) are 14-1 (93%).
Eye is part of that win column, after securing a decision win in September as a -189 favorite against Viviane Araujo, despite weighing-in five pounds over, and forfeiting 30% of her purse.
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Her opponent on Saturday, Cynthia Calvillo, has missed weight in two her past three fights at Strawweight, and finally had to move up to Flyweight against Eye, a former Bantamweight.
Although Calvillo didn’t have problems making weight for this time around, she will be the smaller fighter on Saturday night.
Jessica Eye Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|12/14/19, Viviane Araujo||+160, +150||W|
|6/8/19, Valentina Shevchenko||+825, +470||L|
|12/8/18, Katlyn Chookagian||+185, +170||W|
|6/23/18, Jessica Rose-Clark||+130, +130||W|
|1/14/18, Kalindra Faria||+105, -140||W|
Since returning to Flyweight, the betting market has consistently moved in Jessica Eye’s favor before her fights.
However, Eye opened as a -135 favorite (implied 57.4%) for Saturday’s fight with Cynthia Calvillo, and the underdog has moved closer to a pick’em at -110 (implied 52.2%) as of Friday.
Cynthia Calvillo Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|12/7/19, Marina Rodriguez||-140, +109||D|
|2/17/19, Cortney Casey||-285, -470||W|
|11/17/18, Poliana Botelho||-165, +135||W|
|12/30/17, Carla Esparza||-190, -305||L|
|7/16/17, Joanne Calderwood||-215, -225||W|
The betting market has been torn on Cynthia Calvillo in her recent fights.
She had missed weight before two of her past three bouts and also tested positive for marijuana after her 2017 loss to Carla Esparza.
Tale of the Tape
|Main Event||Jessica Eye||Cynthia Calvillo|
|Record||15-7-0 (1 NC)||8-1-1|
|Avg. Fight Time||13:30||11:42|
|Date of birth||7/27/86||7/13/87|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.79||4.12|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.39||3.54|
|Take Down Avg||0.46||1.83|
Eye, who previously fought at Bantamweight, is the larger fighter against Calvillo, who is moving up from Strawweight, after failing to make 115 pounds. multiple times.
Eye has two inches of both height and reach advantage against Calvillo, who has a slight edge in virtually every fight metric, albeit at a smaller weight class.
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Jessica Eye’s Path to Victory
After going 1-5-1 in the UFC’s Bantamweight division, Eye is 3-1 at Flyweight — where she competed before joining the UFC — and recently scored a catchweight (131 pounds) victory over Araujo in December.
Eye was overmatched against similarly sized but stronger fighters in the 135-pound division, and she lost to some excellent grapplers, including Miesha Tate, Julianna Pena, and Sara McMann.
But her technical boxing translates better in a smaller division, and if Saturday’s main event stays on the feet than Eye will have the advantage.
She is one of the best strikers in women’s MMA, with her ability to dart in and out of range with fast combinations and body kicks, but I’m unsure as to how much work she’ll look to do in the clinch against Calvillo; where Eye typically looks to unload with her knees and elbows.
Eye’s takedown defense (59%) and energy conservation will be her two keys to winning the fight.
In a five-round bout, I expect her to be able to outlast Calvillo and win the later rounds with volume and precision if she can avoid being taken to the mat, and forced to use her energy up early.
Look for Eye to bully Calvillo all night with her jab and set up some difference making-combinations.
Cynthia Calvillo’s Path to Victory
Eye has lost to fighters who can consistently pressure her and take the fight to the ground, where she is much more uncomfortable than being in a striking contest.
Eye is 11-5 on the scorecards in her career, while Calvillo is 3-0, but the underdog has shown a propensity to gas out in the middle and late rounds of her three-round fights; and I’m skeptical of her ability to last for a full 25 minutes on Saturday night.
If she gets the fight to the mat, Calvillo should be able to control Eye’s back and potentially work out a choke:
— MMA Raw & Uncut (@mma_uncut) November 18, 2018
But Calvillo hasn’t shown the ability to be able to pressure her opponents for a full fight consistently — and I severely doubt that she can maintain the pace that she needs to outclass Eye for a full 25 minutes.
Forward pressure is Calvillo’s path to victory; she cannot let Eye simply stand in the pocket and pick her apart for the majority of the fight.
Pick for Eye vs. Calvillo
This bout is listed at -215 (implied 68%) to go the distance, with Eye by decision (+145) and Calvillo by decision (+210) listed as the top two choices in the winning method market.
Calvillo by submission (+300) is the most likely way that the fight finishes inside of the distance, but I do like Eye by KO/TKO (+700) a bit throughout a five-round match; given Calvillo’s stamina concerns.
However, Eye only has one stoppage in her UFC career, so Eye by decision or Calvillo by submission seems to be the most likely result.
A crowdsourced projection of more than 1,500 predictions for this fight made Jessica Eye a 51% favorite (implied odds -104) for Saturday.
Compared to the listed odds, I cannot recommend an actionable play on either fighter, but I would lean to Jessica Eye (+110), Over 4.5 rounds (-230), or Eye by decision (+145); and I would consider a small play moneyline on Eye at even-money (+100) or better.
- Jessica Eye +110 (0.5 units)