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UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira (Saturday, Nov. 7)

UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks: Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira (Saturday, Nov. 7) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: (L-R) Opponents Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira.

  • Top-ranked UFC light heavyweights Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira meet in a pivotal division matchup. Does either fighter show a betting edge?
  • Reed Wallach details how he plans to bet the fight and where he sees some live betting value:

Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira Odds

Santos odds -240 [BET NOW]
Teixeira odds +190 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-125) [BET NOW]
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 11:50 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night features two men trying to enter the Light Heavyweight title chase, while also holding off a star interested in moving up in weight.

When Thiago Santos and Glover Teixeira meet in the octagon, both men plan on proving to UFC President Dana White that they should be the No. 1 contender for Jan Blachowicz’s Light Heavyweight belt and not Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya.

Santos will be fighting his first fight in over a year-and-a-half since losing a split decision to vacated champion Jon Jones, while Teixeira, at the ripe age of 41, is trying to make it five wins in a row in one last effort for the belt. So where’s the betting value? I’ll break down the Santos vs. Teixeira odds and explain where I’m seeing an edge below.

Tale of the Tape

Santos Teixeira
Record 21-7 31-7
Avg. Fight Time 7:36 9:06
Height 6’2″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 76″ 76 “
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 1/7/84 10/28/79
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.44 3.74
SS Accuracy 47% 47%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.19 3.87
SS Defense 57% 55%
Take Down Avg 0.83 1.87
TD Acc 40% 38%
TD Def 68% 60%
Submission Avg 0.1 0.9

Santos vs. Teixeira

A lot is on the line come Saturday night, and each fighter brings contrasting styles to this scrap. Santos is one of the most devastating strikers in all of the UFC. He is currently tied for with three fighters for the most KO/TKO wins in UFC history, per UFC Stats.

Santos throws some of the most violent punches in the whole promotion. Just ask the current Light Heavyweight Champion Blachowicz, who Santos knocked out prior to his Jones battle.

While you can’t deny Santos’ power, you can question where he is physically and mentally. After getting surgery on both of his knees, “Marreta” has been on the shelf for since July 2019. His last fight was the loss to Jones for the belt, a fight where Santos became the first man to take a scorecard off of Jones. How is he going to respond against a fairly active Teixeira, who was last seen in March dismantling Anthony Smith.

Despite being one of the oldest fighters in the UFC, and having his last title fight in 2014, Teixeira has found a second wind in the octagon. The fellow Brazilian got off to a rough start against Smith back in March, but Teixeira took over in the later rounds and ended with one of the most violent victories of the year, costing Smith a few teeth in the process.

Teixeira is as talented as fighter come on the ground, especially at Light Heavyweight. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with eight career submissions to his name.

While he may not be the devastating striker Santos is, Teixeira’s ability to take fights to the ground at his size wears out his opponents and loosens them up. Once gassed, Teixeira finds a way to take over fights and get his way. He has 18 wins by knockout in his 38 fight career.

The X-factor of this match is going to be how Santos handles Teixeira’s grappling. Santos has a career 68% takedown defense, according to UFC Stats and if he can keep this fight upright, he is going to land a knockout shot on his opponent. Teixeira was able to hang in against “Lionheart” in March, but Santos has different kind of power even off the lay off.

Looking at the line, it is a steep price to lay on Santos, who could be suffering from ring rust and may not be able to shake it off in time to take win this fight. However, if Teixeira sticks his chin out, his fellow Brazilian will finish him. Santos is the more dangerous fighter and I believe he has the clearer path to victory, yet I can’t get myself to lay this big number.

I am going to use Santos as a parlay piece with Raoni Barcelos, which makes a parlay of -122. There are other favorites on the card I fancy, including Heavyweight prospect Alexander Romanov, but he will be a bit more costly as he sits at -475 as of this writing.

I will also be watching closely at Santos’ cardio throughout this match. If Teixeira is competitive in the first two rounds and Santos shows signs of wearing down, he is always swinging for the fences and a knockout shot, I will fire a live bet on Teixeira at odds north of +300.

The Pick: Santos ML as a parlay piece | Teixeira live after Round 2 

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