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Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Props, PrizePicks Plays: 4 Selections to Target, Including Aori Qileng and Clay Guida (April 22)

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Props, PrizePicks Plays: 4 Selections to Target, Including Aori Qileng and Clay Guida (April 22) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC figher Clay Guida.

  • Saturday's UFC Fight Night card includes plenty in intriguing matchups.
  • There are plenty of options in how to target this card over at PrizePicks.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the card, as well as PrizePicks selections.

We have another exciting UFC event, with a 12 fight UFC Vegas card starting at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday night.

While not all fights have PrizePicks selections, there’s still plenty of value to be found on the card. Let’s dive into this weekend’s plays.


What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.


UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay

Dean Barry Fight Time: Under 7.5 Minutes

Dean Barry is taking on Mike Jackson in the opening bout of UFC Vegas 52. For those that don’t remember Jackson (not that Mike Jackson), he was one of two fighters brought in to fight pro wrestler CM Punk back in 2016. Jackson lost his tryout fight to Mickey Gall, before being given a second UFC fight. He defeated Punk (later overturned to a no contest) by decision.

Jackson is nowhere near UFC level though. He was 1-0 as an amateur MMA fighter, with his only win being a split decision, before weaseling his way into the UFC. Barry is of questionable ability himself, but he’s at least a legitimate professional MMA fighter, if not quite UFC caliber.

I see no reason for Barry to let this one go more than a few minutes. Under 7.5 is more than enough time to dispatch Jackson — who lost to a young Mickey Gall in 45 seconds. Under 1.5 rounds is roughly -130 depending on the sportsbook, so we should take advantage of the generous line offered by PrizePicks.

Aori Qileng Takedowns: Under 1.5

Aori has attempted roughly one takedown per round in his young UFC career, landing four of them across two fights. That would suggest the over is in play, but there’s a lot more ways for this one to stay under.

Aori’s first two UFC fights were against fighters who were primarily strikers. That’s not the case with his opponent this time, Cameron Else. Else has solid grappling ability, submitting a young Paddy Pimblett on the regional scene.

I’m not sure Aori is able to take Else down. He also might not want to, given Else’s submission pedigree. Beyond that, this fight is currently a heavy favorite to end inside the distance (-225 or so). Even if Aori lands a takedown, he probably needs this one to go at least two rounds to pick up a second one.

My Favorite PrizePicks selections are ones like this, where one side of the bet has multiple ways to hit. This time, that side is the under.

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Quick Picks

  • Clay Guida over 32.5 Significant Strikes: This fight is +130 to end inside the distance. Guida is virtually a lock to top this number if this one goes to a decision, as he’d need only 11 significant strikes per round. He could accomplish that standing or on the ground, so as long as he doesn’t get put away earlier he should get there.
  • Marcin Prachnio Fight Time Over 9 minutes: Prachnio’s fight against Philipe Lins feels like it either ends early, or turns into a 15-minute slog. My money is on the latter though, with Lins having an uncanny ability to turn any fight boring. Lins has hilariously low offensive output but plays solid defense, absorbing less than four strikes per minute. Prachnio could put him away with just one strike of course, but the likelier outcome is a plodding decision.
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