UFC Nashville Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez: Get Big Fave at Plus Money (Saturday, August 5)

UFC Nashville Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez: Get Big Fave at Plus Money (Saturday, August 5) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s strawweight Tatiana Suarez

Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez Odds

Andrade Odds
+300
Suarez Odds
-375
Over/Under
2.5 rounds (+154 / -200)
Venue
Bridgestone Arena in Nashville
Bout Time
11 p.m. ET
Broadcast
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel

The UFC Nashville co-main event on Saturday features an important strawweight clash when Jessica Andrade and Tatiana Saurez clash on ESPN.

Andrade, who is a former champion in this weight class, is looking to stop the bleeding of a two-fight losing skid.

Standing in the Brazilian's way is Suarez, a long-time prospect making her way back down to 115 pounds.

Multiple injuries kept Suarez on the sidelines for nearly four years, but the undefeated 32-year-old made a successful return at flyweight in February and will be looking for similar results a division down.

Let's look into the UFC Nashville co-main event odds and my pick for Andrade vs. Suarez.

Tale of the Tape

AndradeSuarez
Record24-1110-0
Avg. Fight Time9:209:49
Height5'1"5'5"
Weight (pounds)115.5 pounds115.5 pounds
Reach (inches)62"66"
StanceOrthodoxSouthpaw
Date of birth9/25/199112/19/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min6.824.35
SS Accuracy50%66%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.401.34
SS Defense54%49%
Take Down Avg2.616.12
TD Acc54%58%
TD Def73%100%
Submission Avg0.40.8

Despite Andrade being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who regularly takes part in grappling competitions, this matchup still has some "striker vs. grappler" feels attached due to the dominant submission wrestling of Suarez.

An accoladed freestyle wrestler who grew up defying the odds, Suarez possesses a skill set that's historically hard to come by at strawweight.

We've seen what a wrestling base can do for undersized fighters such as two-time former champion Carla Esparza (someone whom Suarez beat down, mind you), so there's no illusion as to what the assignment is for Suarez's opponents.

If forced to stand, Suarez appears to lack any real depth or comfort given that her strikes are typically a means to an end in regard to closing the distance.

Once in clinch space, Suarez has excellent wrestling chains that she likes to go to.

Whether she's snapping down opponents into front-headlock positions or reaching down to snatch up single-legs, Suarez seldom seems at a loss for ideas in transition.

πŸ‘ Undefeated Tatiana Suarez made a triumphant comeback this past February after nearly 4 years away.

Now, she's back at strawweight, ready to conquer former champ Jessica Andrade and chase gold. Watch her in the #UFCNashville co-headliner this Saturday. πŸ₯‹πŸ”₯ #WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/VlzVlsbEE2

β€” Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) August 2, 2023

That said, Suarez will need to be careful to not get too reckless when it comes to closing space or dropping down for submissions.

Aside from being a strong grappler from topside, Andrade is also a powerful puncher who can be difficult to get underneath given her stout stature.

An absolute powerhouse in this weight class, Andrade isn't beyond getting high-amplitude takedowns of her own.

IT’S FIGHT WEEK! πŸ₯Š Remember when Jessica Andrade slammed her way to the UFC strawweight title? πŸ’ͺ

This Saturday, the former champ is back in action, co-headlining #UFCNashville against Tatiana Suarez. Don't miss it! πŸ”₯ #WMMA#UFCpic.twitter.com/RBJplp80sG

β€” Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) July 31, 2023

I don't suspect we'll see Andrade get the jump on Suarez in that department, but things could get interesting if the Brazilian is able to use her wrestling in reverse.

Although Andrade is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, her two losses were fights that were primarily contested on the mat (against the likes of Valentina Shevchenko and Liz Carmouche).

Andrade's boxing-centric style seemed more disjointed in open-stance affairs, but she still should have a considerable edge in striking stanzas with Suarez.

Andrade vs. Suarez Pick

Despite the line opening a little wider, the American is still holding strong as the betting favorite across the board, listing Suarez -375 and Andrade +280 as of this writing.

Although I can't blame anyone for taking an underdog shot at these odds in women's MMA, I'm having a hard time cobbling together any confidence in Andrade finding her win conditions.

Outside of cleaning Suarez's clock with a perfectly placed right hand, I don't see the depth needed in Andrade's counterstriking or grappling to consistently keep her afloat in this contest.

Suarez may not have looked great against Montana De La Rosa earlier this year, but – aside from the expected ring rust from a four-year layoff – De La Rosa was an actual flyweight who also comes from a wrestling base.

I expect Suarez to look much better and stronger now that she's back in her natural weight class, particularly against Andrade.

I hate the price tag on Suarez's moneyline, so I suggest taking a gander at her to win by submission if you're looking to back the undefeated fighter.

Aside from submissions being Suarez's preferred way to finish a fight, Andrade's propensity to turtle to her base or commit to high underhooks serve as open invitations for opportunistic front-chokes.

Add in the fact that Andrade's stature will keep snap-down options in play for Suarez on the feet, and I'll be taking a healthy stab at Suarez's submission prop (as well as sprinkling small on her to win in Rounds 2 or 3 when those numbers become more available).

Pick: Tatiana Suarez wins via submission (+125) | Bet to: +100


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