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UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori Odds & Picks (Saturday, Dec. 5)

UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori Odds & Picks (Saturday, Dec. 5) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: (L-R) Opponents Jack Hermansson of Sweden and Marvin Vettori of Italy.

  • Jack Hermansson could be on the cusp of a middleweight title opportunity, but he needs to get through a red-hot Marvin Vettori first.
  • Sean Zerillo previews the matchup, including how to get the most betting value on the Italian Dream.

Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori Odds

Hermansson odds +120 [BET NOW]
Vettori odds -145 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 4.5 (+145/-175) [BET NOW]
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Time Approx. 12:30 a.m. ET
Channel ESPN2

Odds as of Friday evening and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After a good bit of match shuffling over the past few weeks, No. 4-ranked Middleweight steps into the octagon to face No. 13-ranked Marvin Vettori in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event at the Apex.

Hermansson enters this pivotal matchup with championship aspirations, but he needs to get through “the Italian Dream” to reach that goal. Both men have been in amazing form recently — Hermansson has won four of his past five fights while Vettori has notched three straight wins enter this scrap.

So which fighter has the edge in this matchup? I’ll break down the matchup and betting odds below, but you can find my full breakdown of Saturday’s card here.

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Tale of the Tape

Hermansson Vettori
Record 21-5 15-4-1
Avg. Fight Time 7:28 12:21
Height 6’1″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″ 74″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 6/10/88 9/20/93
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.08 4.33
SS Accuracy 48% 43%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.52 2.76
SS Defense 56% 67%
Take Down Avg 2.19 1.67
TD Acc 35% 47%
TD Def 73% 80%
Submission Avg 0.9 0.9

Hermansson was originally scheduled to face Kevin Holland in Saturday’s main event, and “The Joker” was initially bet from -185 to -270 across the market for that fight.

Vettori now replaces Holland on short notice, and “The Italian Dream’s” significantly more potent and responsible ground game has flipped the outlook of this fight.

Hermansson now has a significant reach advantage (+3 inches) over Vettori relative to his discrepancy in the Holland fight but will have to adjust to a southpaw who has excellent takedown defense (80%) and is one of just a few men to have taken a round from Israel Adesanya.

Hermansson vs. Vettori Pick

Hermansson has been five rounds before, and though his output slowed, the familiarity with those final 10 minutes is an advantage over Vettori in and of itself. Marvin has a high-intensity, high-pressure style, so his own ability to sustain for 25 minutes is a complete mystery.

That pressure style presents problems for Hermansson – who won’t be able to find his range or time his shots with ease. His jab is neutralized by Vettori’s stance, and I question his ability to fight off of the back foot against constant forward pressure.

Similarly, Hermansson is far less effective with his defensive grappling as compared with his dominant top control – and if Vettori decides to change levels and initiate the grappling exchanges, he may end up looking like the better fighter in all areas of this matchup.

Vettori has never been stopped, while Hermansson has been finished four times, and I get the sneaking suspicion that Vettori’s underrated power puts the Swede away late.

However, the projection value lies in Hermansson by submission (projected +264), or Vettori by decision (+250), and I would play those bets down to +308 and +291 respectively.

Ultimately, I think Vettori has the right tools to score the biggest win of his career.

Pick: Vettori wins by Decision (+340)

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