UFC Prop Picks For Saturday’s Fight Night: Jailton Almeida, Joseph Holmes Among Top PrizePicks Props (May 21)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Jailton Almeida
PrizePricks is bringing UFC player props to their platform, allowing us to pick from a number of statistical categories in an exciting parlay fashion. Even better: We can combine correlated options to give ourselves more of an edge.
Below are my two favorite selections for UFC Fight Night 206, with some additional picks for those seeking longer odds.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Jailton Almeida Under 1.5 Takedowns
Almeida was originally slated to fight Max Grishin at light heavyweight on this card, but Grishin was forced to withdraw from the event. In his place steps Parker Porter, a missive heavyweight.
Almeida is a considerable favorite in this one, with odds in the -500 range. However, much of Almeida’s win equity is predicated on a first-round win. He’s roughly even-money to stop this one in the first.
It’s hard to see multiple takedowns in one round happening for Almeida. Heavier fighters tend to have a harder time getting up from their backs than smaller ones, so if this one hits the floor, it likely stays there until the bell.
Additionally, striking might be the cleaner path to victory for Almeida. He has four inches in reach and significantly faster hands than Porter. Porter likely won’t initiate much grappling himself, so this one could be a mostly standup affair.
Finally, I have concerns about Almeida’s ability to get this fight to the ground, even if he does attempt takedowns. He’s likely to be giving up roughly 50 pounds to Porter come fight time, with Porter cutting to the 265-pound limit. I’d estimate Porter to be somewhere in the 280-pound range following his re-hydration.
All things considered, the likeliest outcome for Almeida is exactly one takedown. PrizePicks was nice enough to include the hook on this line, so the under takes it.
Joseph Holmes Fight Time Under 7.5 minutes
All but one of “Uglyman Joe’s” professional wins have came in under eight minutes of fight time, though three of those were frustratingly between 7.5 and eight minutes. That last factor is probably just variance though, with the broader take away being that Holmes is a finisher.
He’s fighting Alen Amedovski, who last fought in the UFC in late 2019, suffering a first-minute knockout loss. Amedovski has never won a UFC fight, and the 30-month layoff is also a bad sign for him.
Holmes could capitalize early on the rusty Amedovski, suing his size and reach (6-foot-4 with an 80-inch wingspan) to punish Amedovski on the feet. He also has excellent submissions, using his length to his advantage with back takes and a variety of chokes.
I don’t see Amedovski putting up much of a fight here, with Holmes the superior fighter wherever this fight takes place. Look for him to make a statement and end this one early.
More Quick UFC Picks
- Chidi Njokuani Over 36.5 Significant Strikes: While there’s concern Njokuani starches Dusko Todorovic immediately — as he did in his UFC debut, a 16-second win — Njokuani should be able to run up the numbers against Todorovic. Todorovic has dreadful striking defense, absorbing nearly five strikes per minute in his UFC run.
- Felipe Colares Under 51.5 Significant Strikes: Colares and Chase “The Dream” Hooper could turn this one into a grappling match with MMA gloves, as both fighters are better on the mat. Colares attempts almost three takedowns per round, with Hooper coming in around two. That doesn’t leave a lot of time for striking, as evidenced by Colares’ 2.27 per-minute rate in the UFC.
- Joseph Holmes Under 30.5 Significant Strikes: This is a correlation play with the fight time under for Holmes. I don’t doubt Holmes’ ability to land strikes in this contest, but I have concerns about Amedovski’s ability to absorb them. If one of the first 30 end his night, we hit this prop and the fight time under.