After consecutive numbered events, the UFC returns to the revamped Apex for the first time in 2026. The main event features exciting bantamweight Vinicius "Lok Dog" Oliveira taking on Mario Bautista, who looks to rebound after having an eight-fight winning streak snapped by Umar Nurmagomedov.
The 12-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and airs on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 113 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 113 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Mario Bautista (-192) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+160)
Vinicius "Lok Dog" Oliveira is one of the most exciting prospects in the UFC, though with a 4-0 promotional record and at 30 years old, he may have moved past prospect into contender status. With how stacked the division is, four wins isn't quite enough to be in title contention just yet, but a win over Mario Bautista would likely be enough that he'd be in serious consideration.
Bautista ripped off a much-maligned eight-fight winning streak of his own before falling to Nurmagomedov, though the latter half of that streak was mostly Bautista playing it extremely safe, and he was gifted a crucial decision over Jose Aldo in that time frame. To his credit, though, he turned up the pace against Nurmagomedov, dropping Umar in Round 2 in between takedowns from the eventual winner.
Bautista won't have to worry about takedowns with Oliveira, who is a capable grappler but will likely look to use his speed and power to win a striking match. Bautista may resort to his gameplan from the fight with Aldo (and others) by trying to dominate this one along the cage, with this being in many ways a similar stylistic matchup as that fight.
My initial reaction was that this line is a bit wide, but Bautista deserves to be favored. If the Oliveira line gets any better, I'll jump in early, but otherwise I'll be waiting until closer to fight day before making a bet.
Verdict: Oliveira (Slightly) Undervalued
Ketlen Souza (-162) vs. Bruna Brasil (+136)
I have two early bets I will be making this week, both with similar logic behind them.
The first is in the strawweight bout between Ketlen Souza and Bruna Brasil. Both women have similar UFC records, with Brasil 3-3 and Souza 2-3. They've fought a broadly similar level of competition, though it's worth noting that two of Souza's losses were split decisions. One of those had no business being a split and was correctly scored, while the other could've gone either way.
This is also a fight fairly likely to go to a decision, with the Over 2.5 Rounds prop set at -350 on the books that already have that available. Which means we're likely to see a very close fight decided by the judges. Brasil is more of a grappler while Souza prefers to strike, but that could mean the rounds where Brasil has success are more clearly in her favor.
Either way, this fight feels like it should be essentially a coin flip, but one side of the coin is paying out at +136 odds. I'll take that bet, though it might be worth waiting a bit longer since the odds seem to be shifting towards Souza.
Verdict: Brasil Undervalued
Cong Wang (-355) vs. Eduarda Moura (+280)
This is another fight between two women with very similar resumes, but for some reason, one is a big favorite.
Cong Wang is 8-1 in her career, with her only loss coming via submission in the UFC. Eduarda Moura is 12-1, with her only career loss coming via split decision in the UFC. They're both 3-1 in the promotion overall, having rebounded from their respective losses with a pair of unanimous decision victories.
Like the above fight, Moura is a grappler taking on a more striking-focused opponent in Wang. In defense of the oddsmakers, Wang has never been taken down in the UFC, but Moura is probably the best grappler she's faced, so that could change here.
Either way, it's hard to justify such a wide line on a fight that likely goes to a decision, so I'll take a sprinkle on Moura now, and add a bit more if the line continues to grow.
Verdict: Moura Undervalued
