Read our UFC Vegas 113 predictions for the Saturday, February 7 event live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 113 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 113 Prop Projections
Muin Gafurov vs. Jakun Wiklacz
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:45 p.m. ET
Muin Gafurov missed weight on Friday, coming in at 141 pounds. He was fined 25% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.
Ketlen Souza vs. Bruna Brasil
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:15 p.m. ET
While I'm leaning to the underdog in all three women's bouts this weekend, my most confident play is by far Bruna Brasil.
She's taking on Ketlen Souza in a Brazil vs. Brazil (or Brazil vs. Brasil) strawweight bout, and in my view, is incorrectly lined as the underdog. This is a somewhat binary fight between the striking of Souza and the grappling of Brasil, but the latter has made considerable improvements since joining the "Fighting Nerds" team, going 2-1 across her last three fights. The loss came when she stepped up to flyweight and was out-muscled by Cong Wang, so probably shouldn't count against her here.
While Souza is the better technical striker, she doesn't bring massive power. Her only UFC finish came via submission, and she's been outstruck by every UFC opponent save Marnic Mann –who went 0-3 between the UFC and Contender Series and was knocked out by Brasil with a head kick.
It seems to me that the line is somewhat influenced by the fact that Souza has lost back-to-back split decisions. That's normally a situation where I'd look to back the "unlucky" fighter myself. However, both of those fights were correctly adjudicated, and if anything, there's a case that the more recent of the two should have been 30-27 against Souza. Crucially for this matchup, she was also taken down nine times across those bouts, which provides a fairly obvious game plan for Brasil.
As I discussed on the latest UFC Betting Preview show, one of the most impressive things about the Fighting Nerds is their ability to gameplan for their fighters, finding the easiest path to a victory for them based on their skill sets. That should be fairly obvious here, so I like Brasil to follow the plan and pull off the slight upset.
The best line at the time of writing is +145 on Brasil via Caesars Sportsbook, but I'd bet her all the way down to even money.
Pick: Brasil +145 (Caesars)
