UFC Vegas 86 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan: 3 Bets for 2nd Try (Saturday, February 10)

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds

Here's everything you need to know about Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan at UFC Vegas 86 on Saturday, Feb. 10 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.

February is apparently the month of the middleweights in the UFC. Saturday's UFC Vegas 86 fight card (4 p.m. ET) features a second consecutive 185-pound main event, with four of the six main card bouts being contested at the weight class.

That includes the main-card opener between Armen Petrosyan and Rodolfo Viera. This is the second attempt to make this fight after the first was canceled at the last minute due to a Petrosyan illness.

My initial Vieira vs. Petrosyan betting preview mostly holds up, but we'll dive into some of the relevant differences this time around when it comes to the pick we land on.

Tale of the Tape

Armen Petrosyan broke into the UFC with a pair of matchups against Brazilian grapplers. He went 1-1 in that timeframe with a split-decision win over Gregory Rodrigues and a loss to Caio Borralho.

Petrosyan's 2-0 since then, though, in much more advantageous matchups from a stylistic (and overall ability) standpoint.

Those early bouts are a far better indication as to how Saturday is likely to play out for Petrosyan, given the stylistic similarities between all three Brazilian fighters.

Petrosyan's best attribute is pretty clearly his kicks, specifically to the legs. He seamlessly blends traditional leg kicks to the thigh with calf kicks, making his strikes extremely tough to defend. On top of that, he has excellent speed with all of his strikes from range, but especially his kicks.

He prefers to keep the distance, luring his opponent in for counter-striking opportunities. Petrosyan can occasionally be overwhelmed when his opponents turn up the volume and pressure, but more often than not, he's able to land the more effective strike from distance.

He tends to lean on single shots – especially early – sniping with one well-placed strike at a time. However, he builds as the fight goes on, throwing more combinations once his opponent tires. In three of his four UFC fights, he's increased both his attempted and landed strikes each round.

Naturally, Petrosyan struggles with takedown defense. That's to be expected given his foundation as a striker and his reliance on kicks. He's surrendered a few takedowns on caught kicks, and overall he's been put down nine times in four UFC fights. However, he's done an excellent job of scrambling back to his feet, generally by wrestling up from a turtle position.

Those transitions are likely to decide the fight against Vieira, who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

Unlike some jiu-jitsu players we've seen in the UFC octagon, Vieira has strong wrestling and takedowns, and he doesn't have to rely on pulling guard.

This was also especially evident against Cody Brundage – himself a wrestler – whom Vieira took down and controlled for three minutes.

Also evident was Vieira's striking deficiencies; he was knocked down by the grappler in the opening round. To Vieira's credit, he's never been knocked out in an MMA fight, but his lone stoppage loss (a submission) was a direct result of being hurt with strikes.

Still, Petrosyan isn't a power striker, and he won't load up the way Brundage did. Vieira's jiu-jitsu is also on another level compared to Petrosyan's past opponents.

While Rodrigues and Borralho are known as strong grapplers, Rodrigues' best accomplishment in the sport was a Brazilian national championship – at blue belt. That's a far cry from winning prestigious tournaments like ADCC.

Unlike Petrosyan, who tends to build as fights go on, Vieira's cardio is a significant concern. This is also expected from BJJ fighters. Jiu-jitsu matches have a slower pace than MMA fights, and they almost never feature multiple rounds.

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Vieira vs. Petrosyan Pick

The last time this fight was booked, it closed as roughly a pick'em – meaning sentiment has shifted to the Brazilian this time around. That's probably due to the fact that this fight is at the UFC Apex center while the last time the UFC was on the road. That means a smaller cage, which should favor the grappler in Viera.

My read the first time around was that this fight favors Viera early and Petrosyan late, a sentiment I still agree with. However, the venue change certainly increases my confidence in Viera.

On his side of the coin, I'm still playing him to win in either of the first two rounds at +185 on FanDuel. I considered trying to get greedy by building a same game parlay on DraftKings that included Viera by submission, but it didn't meaningfully increase the odds.

However, I'm viewing bets on Petrosyan as more of a hedge this time around. The ideal way to play that would be in the live markets, in hopes that Viera has a strong first (or second) round and pushes the price up. If you prefer to get a prefight bet down, Petrosyan by decision is +335 at BetRivers.

The Picks: Viera in Rounds 1 or 2 (+185 at FanDuel) | Petrosyan live after Round 1 (TBA) or Petrosyan by decision (+335 at BetRivers)

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