UFC Sao Paulo Odds, Pick & Prediction for Rodolfo Vieira vs Armen Petrosyan: Bet This UFC Bout From All Angles (Saturday, November 4)

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds

Two transfers from other combat sports meet on the UFC Sao Paulo main card on Sunday, so let's take a look at the Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan odds, pick and prediction.

Brazil's Vieira, "The Black Belt Hunter," is unsurprisingly a former Brazilian jiu-jitsu professional. He was the 2015 ADCC gold medalist at 99 kilograms while also taking home bronze in the absolute (open weight) division – among many other accolades both with the gi and without.

On Saturday, Vieira is fighting Petrosyan, an Armenian kickboxer with an extensive record in muay Thai and other forms of kickboxing.

Both men have shown improvements in their overall MMA game, but this is still a fairly classic "striker vs. grappler" matchup.

There are some other key distinctions at play that we'll dig into though – which will include the best way to bet this UFC Sao Paulo featured attraction.

Tale of the Tape

Armen Petrosyan broke into the UFC with a pair of matchups against Brazilian grapplers. He went 1-1 in that time frame with a split-decision win over Gregory Rodrigues and a loss to Caio Borralho.

Petrosyan's gone 2-0 since then, though, in much more advantageous matchups from a stylistic (and overall ability) standpoint.

Those early bouts are a far better indication as to how Saturday is likely to play out for Petrosyan, given the stylistic similarities between all three Brazilian fighters.

Petrosyan's best attribute is pretty clearly his kicks, specifically to the legs. He seamlessly blends traditional leg kicks to the thigh with calf kicks, making his strikes extremely tough to defend. On top of that, he has excellent speed with all of his strikes from range, but especially his kicks.

He prefers to keep the distance, luring his opponent in for counter-striking opportunities. Petrosyan can occasionally be overwhelmed when his opponents turn up the volume and pressure, but more often than not, he's able to land the more effective strike from distance.

He tends to lean on single shots – especially early in fights -–sniping with one well-placed strike at a time. However, he tends to build as the fight goes on, throwing more combinations once his opponent tires. In three of his four UFC fights, he's increased both his attempted and landed strikes each round of the bout.

Naturally, Petrosyan tends to struggle with takedown defense. That's to be expected given his foundation as a striker, as well as his reliance on kicks. He's surrendered a few takedowns on caught kicks, and overall he's been put down nine times in four UFC fights. However, he's done an excellent job of scrambling back to his feet, generally by wrestling up from a turtle position.

Those transitions are likely to decide the fight against Vieira, who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career.

Unlike some jiu-jitsu players we've seen in the UFC octagon, Vieira has strong wrestling and takedowns, and he doesn't have to rely on pulling guard to get this one to the canvas.

This was also especially evident against Cody Brundage – himself a wrestler – whom Vieira was able to take down and control for three minutes during their bout.

Also evident was Vieira's striking deficiencies; he was knocked down by the grappler in the opening round. To Vieira's credit, he's never been knocked out in an MMA fight, but his lone stoppage loss (a submission) was a direct result of being hurt with strikes.

Still, Petrosyan isn't a power striker, and he won't load up on single shots the way Brundage did. Vieira's jiu-jitsu is also on another level compared to Petrosyan's past opponents.

While Rodrigues and Borralho are known as strong grapplers, Rodrigues' best accomplishment in the sport was a Brazilian national championship – at blue belt. That's a far cry from winning prestigious tournaments like ADCC.

Unlike Petrosyan, who tends to build as fights go on, Vieira's cardio is a significant concern. This is also expected from BJJ fighters. Jiu-jitsu matches have a much slower pace than MMA fights, and they almost never feature multiple rounds.

Vieira vs. Petrosyan Pick

While the "striker vs. grappler" dichotomy is the obvious angle here, the far juicier angle from a betting standpoint is the pace/cardio dichotomy.

Vieira is fairly likely to force this one to the mat early on – even if it requires getting knocked down. All nine of his professional wins have come on the canvas, with eight submissions and one via ground and pound.

If he's unable to get that finish early, Petrosyan should dominate the later stages of this fight. Taking an unwilling opponent down burns more energy than almost anything else in combat sports, and doing it multiple times is exceptionally difficult. Dancing around at range while chopping away at the lead leg of a slower opponent? Not so much.

On top of that, Vieira has also shown exceptional durability despite eating some big shots in the past. He does so in a fashion that looks horrible to the judges, but he survives nonetheless.

If you told me this fight ended in the first seven or eight minutes, I'd be extremely confident in Vieira as the winner. Conversely, if it makes it beyond that mark, I'd put a big bet on Petrosyan.

There's a small concern that the Brazilian judges hand Vieira an unearned decision, but I don't expect this one to be close enough in the second half for home cooking to come into play.

My favorite way to bet this is Vieira in Rounds 1 or 2 on FanDuel (under "Alternate Round Betting") at +180. I'd also consider a same-game parlay on DraftKings of Vieira and under 1.5 rounds – if that works out to significantly longer odds when available.

From there, I'd make a live bet on Petrosyan if he survives to roughly that point.

However, I don't want to assume everyone has the ability or desire to make live bets on non-PPV UFC events. In that case, taking the opposite bet – Petrosyan Round 3/decision at +220 on FanDuel, makes sense too. That way, you could put about half a unit on each side and turn a nice profit if either fighter wins in their likeliest fashion.

The Picks: Vieira in Round 1/2 (+180 at FanDuel) | Petrosyan live OR Petrosyan in Round 3/decision (+220 at FanDuel)