UFC Vegas 91 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov: Submission Bet for Volatile Co-Main Event (Saturday, April 27)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds
Here's our Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov pick with a UFC Vegas 91 prediction for the co-main event on Saturday, April 27
Tonight's UFC co-headliner in Las Vegas features a light heavyweight showdown between Ryan Spann and Bogdan Guskov.
Despite Spann being out of action since suffering a loss in August of last year, the UFC appears to be more than happy to continue to give him co-headliner opportunities.
Standing in Spann's way of a potential rebound is relative UFC newcomer, Guskov.
Aside from a spooky resemblance to Spann's previous opponent, Anthony Smith, Guskov has shown to have a similar penchant to his American counterpart when it comes to finishing fights quickly.
Tale of the Tape
| Spann | Guskov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-9 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:22 | 3:42 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205.5 lbs. | 204.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/24/1991 | 9/12/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.42 | 2.43 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 33% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.91 | 5.81 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.29 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 0% |
| TD Def | 47% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0.0 |
With both men being fast finishers on paper, I fully expect violent action from Jump Street.
Spann, who has been a staple of this 205-pound division for some time, is no stranger when it comes to having a firefight on the feet or the mat.
An athletic mover with solid proprioception, Spann will confidently navigate space with a long lead hand and a killer cross that he keeps ready in the rear.
Spann will also sprinkle in the occasional kick or flying knee, but the Fortis MMA fighter mainly makes his money in the grappling department.
Whether Spann is looking for double-legs along the fence or is attempting hip tosses from the clinch, the 32-year-old is typically quick to coax his counterparts into closed-quarter combat.
Spann is also eager when it comes to opportunistic submissions, but he can't afford to underestimate the skills of Guskov.
Despite most of his martial arts accolades residing in the striking realm, Guskov is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who also abides by the book of opportunism.
Not only has Guskov won with submissions that caught Spann in the past, but the Uzbekistan native has also finished a fighter with elbows as he attempted to take him down (akin to how Spann lost to Johnny Walker).
That said, most of Guskov's finishes take place at striking range in open space. A master of sports in boxing, Guskov demonstrates a dangerous right hand that is deceptively accurate from awkward angles.
Although I can appreciate a fighter who looks to bait his opponents, Guskov will need to be extra careful with his low-handed guard opposite a long and explosive fighter like Spann.
Spann vs. Guskov Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American, listing Spann -205 and Guskov +158 as of this writing.
Even though this is an incredibly volatile fight that I suggest limited exposure to, I can also understand why money is steadily trickling in on Spann.
Despite Guskov showing some methods of success that have worked on Spann before, I'm not sure how replicable any of those win conditions are – particularly in this spot. Aside from the fact that Spann seems incredibly hard to hurt standing, I suspect that the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex will favor "Superman" from a stylistic perspective.
Both fighters have a bad habit of dropping back for guillotines, but Spann is the more potent and proven submission threat who should have an edge in the wild scrambles that the small-cage encourages.
Add in Guskov's lackadaisical, low-handed defense on the feet (which will probably bode badly given Spann's length), and I can't help but see a club-and-sub win in the cards for Spann this Saturday.
Spann is not a fighter I like to play as a favorite, but I will happily sprinkle small on his primary win condition at plus money in the 2-1 range.
The Pick: Ryan Spann by Submission (+220 at FanDuel)
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