The Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. One of the most prestigious events in the F1 calendar, the race is held on the streets of Monte Carlo in the French Riviera. It will be the eighth race of the season and the second of a triple-header opening the European season.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
As the F1 circus arrives at what once was the crown jewel of the calendar, it'd be remiss not to mention the years haven't been kind to the Monaco Grand Prix. Modern F1 cars basically parade at high speeds at a track where it was already tricky to overtake over 30 years ago (look up Nigel Mansell's duel with Ayrton Senna at the 1992 race to witness F1's best imitation of what driving behind an old lady looks like).
Fans have long started to moan about the date, calling for significant changes to either the track layout or the cars to fix an event that has become less and less about the racing. Overtaking is now a near impossibility without driver error or a substantial difference in machinery, meaning that for all the glitz and glamour of Sunday, Saturday is where the true action is.
Action did we have, as McLaren's Lando Norris came back strong in qualifying, securing his second pole position of the season with a Monaco track record of 1:09.954. The surprise of the day was surely home favorite Charles Leclerc, who took advantage of a Ferrari that's more competitive in tight tracks to split a McLaren front-row lockout. Championship leader Oscar Piastri sits third, with Max Verstappen fourth and Isack Hadjar fifth.
Still, a regulation change to the race could throw a spanner in the works. For the 2025 season, the teams have agreed to make it a mandatory two-stop race in an effort to make the event a more interesting affair. While the pits are hardly the place fans want the action to be, at the very least, it'll give us one more high-tension moment.
Formula 1 Predictions: Monaco GP
Lando Norris Race Winner (-165, BetMGM)
It takes an absolute collapse to start from pole in Monaco and not claim the win. Five out of the last ten race winners did so, with a further three wins for the other car in the front row. Simply put, getting a Monaco win is very much about location, location, location.
Of course, if you have to name a driver famous for losing wins from pole, that is Lando Norris. Five times the British driver has shone on Saturday and then dropped the ball on Sunday, without counting the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix, where he lost first at the launch before reclaiming it a few laps later.
Still, in a race as tight as Monaco and with a car as dominant as this year's McLaren, it looks too much even for Norris to lose it.
Lewis Hamilton Top 3 Finish (+500, BetMGM)
Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari was highly touted before the season started. The now-iconic presentation with the seven-time champ clad in an Italian suit in front of the historic Ferrari headquarters showed seven windows closed, and an eighth open.
It may be the window from where Hamilton most often looks out to the horizon, wondering why he moved away from Mercedes at a season where the Silver Arrows look second-best in most races, while Ferrari scrambles not to lose the fifth spot.
Yet, the scarlet red cars have looked as good as the McLarens at Monaco's slow track. Before being hit with a three-place grid drop for blocking Verstappen in qualifying, Hamilton had shown enough pace to challenge for pole. If he manages one of his famous launches off the line, it could earn him a jump on one or two cars very early on.
The mandatory two-stop strategy could then work to Ferrari's advantage. The Maranello outfit rules the Fastest Pit Stops of the Season rankings, with five of the best 10 stops of the 2025 season, including the best four. It could prove all Hamilton needs in a race with such minimal margins.
Carlos Sainz Top 10 Finish (+110, BetMGM)
Williams has taken the fight to the top so often this season that it was surprising to see one of the cars drop below Q3 on Saturday. Yet, out went Carlos Sainz in Q2, barely missing out and giving us a very interesting prop.
This feels like an absolute steal for the level Williams and Sainz have performed this season, as the Spanish driver will start 11th on the grid. Moreover, the Spaniard will sit behind a rookie driver in Isack Hadjar, a crash-happy Esteban Ocon, and a Liam Lawson looking to show Red Bull higher-ups that he belonged in the second car, not Yuki Tsunoda.
In the twisty turns of Monaco, with barriers often all too close, any and all of them could brake an inch too late and allow Sainz through for an easy points finish.
