NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks: 2 Value Bets for the Bank of America ROVAL 400

Sep 29, 2019 10:27 AM EDT
Credit:

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) looks on during practice for the Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan Speedway.

  • The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits the Charlotte Roval this afternoon for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
  • Nick Giffen details two drivers he's betting to win today's race.

Today’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte Roval is the third of three Cup Series road course events.  Exactly one race at the Roval has ever taken place, giving us a small sample size to work with when looking at track history.

So how do we gauge driver performance when track history is nearly nonexistent? The easiest thing we can do is look across a range of tracks, and across multiple road course races.

Four of the seven road course winners during the era of stage racing in the Cup Series came from the front two rows. The other three winners all started inside the top 12.

That means it’s probably going to be very hard to win if a driver doesn’t start toward the front. Last year’s winner — Ryan Blaney — benefited from plenty of randomness at the front of the field. There were two sets of crashes in which the front two cars took each other out, so it’s certainly possible for randomness to come into play. When it does, though, other top cars are likely to benefit.

The recipe for success is to find drivers capable of winning by shopping around for value. Let’s apply that process to today’s race.

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