NASCAR at Charlotte Odds, Picks: 2 Value Bets for the Bank of America ROVAL 400
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) looks on during practice for the Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan Speedway.
- The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits the Charlotte Roval this afternoon for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
- Nick Giffen details two drivers he's betting to win today's race.
Today’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte Roval is the third of three Cup Series road course events. Exactly one race at the Roval has ever taken place, giving us a small sample size to work with when looking at track history.
So how do we gauge driver performance when track history is nearly nonexistent? The easiest thing we can do is look across a range of tracks, and across multiple road course races.
Four of the seven road course winners during the era of stage racing in the Cup Series came from the front two rows. The other three winners all started inside the top 12.
That means it’s probably going to be very hard to win if a driver doesn’t start toward the front. Last year’s winner — Ryan Blaney — benefited from plenty of randomness at the front of the field. There were two sets of crashes in which the front two cars took each other out, so it’s certainly possible for randomness to come into play. When it does, though, other top cars are likely to benefit.
The recipe for success is to find drivers capable of winning by shopping around for value. Let’s apply that process to today’s race.
Kevin Harvick +1350
Harvick is a very good road racer, with multiple career wins at road course races, including one at Sonoma in 2017. Ten of his past 11 incident-free road course races have resulted in top-10 finishes, including six of his last seven road course races overall.
Harvick was quick in final practice, posting the fifth-fastest five-lap average out of eighteen drivers that made a run. He also claims the sixth starting position for today’s race. That combination of starting position and practice speed should keep him near the front for most of the race.
With such limited data not only in track history, but also in practice, it behooves us to take a driver of Harvick’s overall record at a price that’s quite affordable, especially when he’s shown significant speed in the limited on-track data we do have.
The +1200 number for Harvick MGM is offering is quite generous — he has odds of +900 or shorter across most other books, which is right on the cusp of value.
Joey Logano +1400
Knowing that over 50% of road course races in the stage era have been won by drivers starting inside the top three, this number being offered at PointsBet on Logano is quite generous.
Logano starts third for today’s race, and with Alex Bowman moving to the rear, Joey will have to overcome only polesitter William Byron and possibly Byron’s teammate, Jimmie Johnson, who should move to the front row after Bowman heads to the rear.
Logano’s road course record in 2019 is certainly less than inspiring, but he does have some positives going for him. In the high-downforce era of the Gen-6 car, Logano had three top-seven finishes at Watkins Glen, including one win. He also had a fifth-place finish at Sonoma.
Logano is comfortably inside the playoff picture, so he’s all about the win while other contenders could be playing it safe. That increases his upside relative to other drivers, making the +1400 odds a fine price for a top-three starter with solid road course history.
If you’re in Vegas, you can get Logano at +1200 at MGM. I like betting him down to +1000.