NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks: 2 Value Bets to Win the Bojangles’ Southern 500

NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks: 2 Value Bets to Win the Bojangles’ Southern 500 article feature image
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Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Chris Buescher (37) leads a pack of cars

  • The 2019 Bojanges' Southern 500 goes green tonight at 6 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Darlington Raceway.
  • Here are two past Southern 500 winners being undervalued by the betting market.

When it comes to betting on NASCAR, odds can fluctuate massively based on how drivers qualify. Obviously, having a better starting position gives drivers an advantage over those in the back, especially with the 2019 aero package.

However, there are still some racetracks on the circuit with older surfaces that wear tires significantly. When tires quickly lose their grip, it puts more of an emphasis on the driver than track position.

Darlington Raceway is old school in every way, including its surface. Managing tires is the key to getting around here well over the course of an entire run.

So while starting position always matters, there are two past Southern 500 winners who the market has downgraded too much for my liking, and I’ll happily buy them back at their current discounted prices.

All odds above are as of 12:40 p.m. ET on Sunday and via PointsBet.

Kevin Harvick (+850) to Win

Harvick is arguably the best driver in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series at managing tire wear, and that shows in his recent performances at Darlington.

Over the past five Southern 500s, Harvick has the best average finish (4.2) and the best average running position (3.8), while leading the most laps (518) and running the most fast laps (196).

The 2014 Southern 500 winner qualified a respectable 11th for tonight’s race while showing plenty of speed in practice — Harvick finished sixth in 10-lap average and fifth in 20-lap average in Happy Hour.

Martin Truex Jr. (11-1) to Win

Darlington has really clicked for Truex over the past three years, highlighted by his win in this event back in 2016.

Over that span, just three drivers have a better average finish than Truex and only two have a better average running position. Truex has also spent plenty of time out front, ranking fourth in laps led and second in fast laps.

His starting position of 22nd isn’t ideal, but it’s not enough to justify a drop to 11-1 odds, especially since he performed just fine in final practice with the fourth-best 10-lap average and seventh-best 15-lap average.

*Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of 9 a.m. ET