NASCAR Odds, Best Bets: 2 Outrights to Buy Back Sunday at Kansas

A Sunday motorsports doubleheader is just a few hours away as NASCAR at Kansas starts at 3 p.m. ET, followed by the F1 Miami Grand Prix an hour later.

Live NASCAR odds for Kansas start with Kyle Larson (+250) as the clear favorite, with Denny Hamlin (5-1), Tyler Reddick (+725), William Byron (+825) and Christopher Bell (+825) rounding at the top five at BetMGM.

Because tires do wear at Kansas, practice can help us identify the cars with the least amount of falloff and, therefore, hang onto speed over the course of long runs.

And what's so surprising to me – but very beneficial for bettors – is how NASCAR odds for two top drivers have lengthened despite very strong performances in practice yesterday.

It's overreaction season today in Kansas, and here are the two drivers I'm buying back right now.

NASCAR Odds, Best Bets for Kansas

*Odds as of Sunday morning

Denny Hamlin (+500) to Win – BetMGM

Denny Hamlin is an absolute monster at Kansas.

The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has three wins in the last nine races at this track – including this race last season – while finishing outside of the top five just twice over that span.

Perhaps more importantly, Hamlin has continued to dominate here since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car in 2022, posting the best average finish and the best driver rating with results of fourth, second, first and second.

When we zero in on Saturday's practice sessions, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was an absolute rocket once again, ranking top four in every meaningful longer-run metric.

We have a driver who has dominated at Kansas over the last five years, including in the latest NASCAR Cup Series car, has shown plenty of speed already this weekend, yet his odds have dropped from +450 to +500?

Why?

My only answer is that Hamlin's 14th-place qualifying run resulted in the odds adjustment.

Another question: Guess Hamlin's average starting position over the last four races at Kansas where he's been so dominant? 16.3.

I'm in on +500 at BetMGM.

William Byron (+1200) to Win – Caesars

Speaking of overreactions, can I interest you in some William Byron?

Prior to yesterday's on-track activity, Byron's odds were shorter than 10-1 in most spots.

Now, after the No. 24 Chevrolet ranked second in five-lap average, first in 10-lap average, second in 15-lap average and first in 20-lap average, he is available at 12-1 odds (Caesars)?

To be fair, Byron got tight in qualifying and scraped the wall, relegating the Hendrick Motorsports driver to 36th on the starting grid. That explains why his price became more enticing for bettors.

And while starting at the back is never ideal, Kansas is a track where drivers can move through the field if their cars are fast, and as we've seen so far this season and in practice on Saturday, Byron's car is certainly fast.

In terms of value alone, this is my favorite bet for today's race at Kansas.