F1 Odds, Predictions & Picks: 2 Bets for Miami Grand Prix (Sunday, May 5)

Check out the F1 odds with Miami Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race today on Sunday, May 5.

After today's race down in Miami Gardens, Florida, the 2024 F1 season will already be a quarter of the way through.

The first of three races in the U.S. this season takes place on this afternoon with F1 Miami Grand Prix race coverage on ABC (4 p.m. ET). It's also a big racing day in the U.S. overall, with NASCAR in Kansas at 3 p.m. ET (FS1).

Here are the F1 odds for the Miami Grand Prix race outright winner, as of Sunday afternoon and via FanDuel:

• Max Verstappen: -700
• Charles Leclerc: +750
• Lando Norris: +1800
• Carlos Sainz Jr.: +2500
• Sergio Perez: +2900
• Oscar Piastri: +7000
• Lewis Hamilton: +9500
• George Russell: +11000
• Fernando Alonso: +20000
• Lance Stroll: +20000
• Yuki Tsunoda: +42000
• Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
• Pierre Gasly: +50000
• Logan Sargeant +50000
• Kevin Magnussen: +50000
• Alexander Albon: +50000
• Esteban Ocon: +50000
• Valtteri Botas:  +50000
• Daniel Ricciardo: +50000
• Zhou Guanyu: +50000

The third edition of the Miami Grand Prix takes place on a temporary street circuit track that runs around Hard Rock Stadium at the Miami International Autodrome. This year’s race weekend featured a sprint race on Saturday followed by qualifying for the grand prix in the afternoon. The sprint race result no longer determines the grid order for the race, which is new for 2024.

The Miami International Autodrome features 19 corners, three long straights and several slow corners that the drivers will need to be on point with. The straights will punish high-drag cars, and the heat of south Florida in May will challenge the teams to manage the tire degradation throughout the race. In the prior two editions, teams were on a one-stop strategy for the most part, using only the hard compound tires and the medium compound tires for the race.

Qualifying on Saturday afternoon saw Max Verstappen earn his sixth consecutive pole position to start the season, followed by a strong Ferrari showing of Charles Leclerc in P2 and Carlos Sainz in P3.

Verstappen was the quickest car on the grid in Q1 and Q3 whereas Leclerc was on top of the session in Q2.

Bet on the F1 Miami Grand Prix today with our FanDuel promo code!

F1 Odds: Miami Grand Prix Picks & Predictions 

Max Verstappen 3-Peat

Max Verstappen will try to earn his third consecutive F1 Miami GP victory, this time from pole position. In the inaugural Miami race back in 2022, Max won from P3 on the starting grid, and last season he won from all the way down in P9.

As a seven- or eight-dollar favorite to win the race, it feels irresponsible to recommend placing a wager of that amount on the odds-on favorite. I am, however, willing to lay a little juice to bet Verstappen to win and set the fastest lap of the race.

Two years ago, Verstappen won from P3 and set the fastest lap of the race on lap 54 of 57 with a time of 1:31.361. Last year, once again winning the race and setting the fastest lap on Lap 56 with a time of 1:29.708.

While nothing is set in stone or guaranteed, all signs point to a Verstappen clean-sweep weekend in Miami. He has already won the sprint race thus far from pole position, and I fully expect the same result for the prand prix race.

The Picks: Max Verstappen – Fastest Lap & Win the Race (-250 on bet365, 2.5 units)

McLaren Upgrade Package for Top Driver

Oscar Piastri has not scored a point in his career at the Miami Grand Prix. Starting in P9 for Saturday's sprint race, he was ousted on the opening lap due to a collision with the Aston Martin of Lance Stroll.

Starting in a points position back in 2022, Piastri's teammate, Lando Norris, was involved in a collision 41 laps in and had to retire the car. Then in last year's race, after a terrible qualifying session and starting in P16, Lando finished P17 with an uncompetitive car.

Fast forward to this year’s Miami Grand Prix weekend, and McLaren has brought a massive upgrade package to the busy sprint weekend in an effort to close the gap with the Red Bull and Ferrari cars ahead of them.

The most glaring weakness in the McLaren MCL38 car has been the high drag in the straights on an otherwise quick car around the corners. The 10 upgrades for the McLaren look to solve these problems. Most notably, there is a completely new front wing on the car, updated front and rear suspension, and a new offloaded beam wing.

While the sprint race did not go to plan for the McLaren driver, there have been a lot of positives already this weekend from Norris. During sprint qualifying on Friday, he led the field on the medium compound tires in both SQ1 (1:27.939) and SQ2 (1:27.597) sessions. Norris then went on to struggle on the soft compound tires in SQ3, but the race will not feature the softs.

I see Norris' race pace being faster than his qualifying pace due to the tire difference. Starting in P5 on the grid, I think he has a great chance to move up one or two places at the start of the race when the lights go out in Miami and ultimately finish in the Top 3 for a spot on the podium.

The Picks: Lando Norris – Podium Finish (+125 on BetMGM, 1 unit)