After single-car qualifying took place last night, setting the front row for the Daytona 500 (Sun. Feb. 15, 2:30 p.m. ET, FOX), the America 250 Florida Duels at Daytona (7 p.m. ET, FS1) will set the rest of the 41-car field for the "Great American Race."
The Duels tend to be calmer drafting track events than the 500 itself, as wrecking your car is not an ideal spot to be in heading into the 500. However, it's still a drafting track, and teams and drivers will want to get a good handle on how their cars race in the draft, so look for some excitement at various points in either of the two Duels.
With that in mind, here are my best value bets for each Duel race.
Follow Dr. Nick in the Action App as he may add more bets prior to the green flag for each race, or even place a couple live bets on the two races.
Duel 1
This Duel features 23 cars, and notably, all four Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Ford drivers are in it, along with two Penske Fords and two Front Row Motorsports (FRM) Fords. RFK's goal is to get their only driver who isn't locked into the 500 — Corey LaJoie — into the big show, while FRM — in an alliance with Team Penske — is looking to lock in Chandler Smith.
That presents an interesting dilemma for the Ford camp, as only one of the two can make the Daytona 500 on Sunday.
For me, the experience and craft of Corey LaJoie, along with his three RFK Racing teammates Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece, are why I gravitate toward LaJoie having a great shot at winning this race. You know the trio is going to be locked onto him to get him in the 500, and the best way to do that is to ensure Chandler Smith (or Casey Mears in a much slower car) doesn't pass him.
My model has LaJoie winning the first Duel just under 6% of the time, so at 25-1 at Bet365, or even 22-1 at BetMGM or DraftKings, there's value in LaJoie to take home the first Duel race.
LaJoie is +800 to finish inside the top three at Bet365, which is fantastic value.
The Bets: Corey LaJoie to Win Duel 1 (+2500 at Bet365), LaJoie Top-3 Finish (+800 at Bet365) | Bet to: (+1800 and +550)
Duel 2
There's a lot less agenda-based racing in Duel 2, which could make it an exciting one to watch.
There are seven Toyotas set to take part in this duel, which for them is a lot considering there are only 11 total Toyotas out of 45 total entries, so making up almost one-third of the field is an outsized proportion compared to most races.
That leads me to Tyler Reddick, who qualified near the back, but a qualifying position doesn't matter so much in these drafting races, and I think that's inflated his odds. He's 20-1 to win at both FanDuel and DraftKings, yet my model has him north of 6% to take the checkered flag first in the second Duel race.
Like LaJoie, theScore is hanging a nice Top-3 Finish line on Reddick, at +600. I have him over 18% to finish in the top three, so I like that bet as well.
The Bets: Tyler Reddick to Win Duel 2 (+2000 at DraftKings and FanDuel ), Reddick Top-3 Finish (+600 at theScore) | Bet to: (+1600 and +500)
