NASCAR at Phoenix Betting Pick: The Undervalued Prop for Sunday’s Championship Race

NASCAR at Phoenix Betting Pick: The Undervalued Prop for Sunday’s Championship Race article feature image
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Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Aric Almirola

This is it — the final race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season.

Not only does Sunday’s race at Phoenix mark the end of the season, but it will also crown NASCAR’s latest champion.

Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are the Championship 4 drivers eligible for the title and will therefore get the lion’s share of attention during Sunday’s race broadcast.

But let’s also not forget there’s a field of 36 drivers racing at Phoenix, as well as a full array of betting odds available.

And with NASCAR at Phoenix odds so heavy with short prices for the Championship 4, I’m pivoting and taking advantage of inflated prop odds for those further down the board.

To start, let me remind everyone that practice and qualifying will return for this weekend’s race, meaning NASCAR at Phoenix odds will come off the board ahead of Friday night’s practice, and frankly, who knows whether they’ll come back up before Saturday night’s qualifying?

The key factor here to understand is that odds will adjust based on results from practice and qualifying, so I’m going ahead and betting this prop right now before oddsmakers have the opportunity (and information) to shorten the numbers ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

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NASCAR at Phoenix Betting Pick

*Odds as of Wednesday morning

Aric Almirola has really struggled using the 550-horsepower package this season, which can overshadow just how good he’s been with the 750-horsepower package that will be used in Sunday’s race at Phoenix.

Remember, Almirola scored a huge upset win at New Hampshire over the summer and has been very fast at tracks similar to Phoenix.

In four total races spread across Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire this season, Almirola has the fifth-best average finish, including two top 10s and a worst finish of 14th place.

So, when I saw Almirola +240 at BetMGM for a top-10 finish in Sunday’s race, I jumped at the opportunity.

The implied probability of +240 odds is 29.41% and Almirola’s performances this season with this race package on flat tracks suggest he’ll finish in the top 10 more than 29.41% of the time, making this a very nice bet.

 

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