Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 11, 2025

MIDDLE

Bricks turn to water

SGA assists still badly mispriced. He had 7 last game but 24 potentials, now 20.7 on the series lapping the field this round — Jokic at 13/g behind Murray actually. Still looking to invest in SGA assists until books further adjust the price. I’m projecting him at almost 12 dimes in normal minutes. Gonna give you a variety of ways to play. Most assists on day at 365 is my favorite if you have it. He’s projected almost 2 ahead of the field.

Adding

7-6-8 TOs this series, averaging 6 TOs a game the last 5g. Did he just run out of steam? 2.8 BPM, 97 ortg, 51 TS that stretch with 34 ast and 30 TOs, compared to his first 4 playoff games at 17.2 BPM, 129 ortg, 63 TS, and 55 ast to just 15 TO. Nobody forces more TOs than OKC. Jokic over this in 4 straight.

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Tailing @JoeDellera

I’m going to sell a bit high in MPJ after his best game of the series. He recorded 9 RA but that was his first game with more than 6 since Game 3 against the Clippers. He has not been passing the ball well and his minutes were reduced until his shot started falling last game. A big factor here is that shoulder injury which is one where he’s been able to receive some treatment but it’s a bit inconsistent. He played 42 minutes in a critical Game 3 and it’s unclear how his shoulder will respond to that in Game 4 just two days later. OKC is a tough matchup for this regardless, and if things are not working well we have seen Denver slash his minutes. 42 minutes last time out was a peak outcome and I’ll bet against that this afternoon.