Fading the No. 1 Seed? Game 2 Trends to Know


Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Can Houston bounce back after a Game 1 loss? No. 1 seeds after a playoff defeat have not been profitable historically, going 72-75-1 (49%) ATS in their next game since 2005.

The Rockets closed with 37% of spread bets in Game 1. After Houston lost and failed to cover, only 31% of tickets are on the Rockets as of Wednesday morning (see live numbers here).

Here’s how No. 1 seeds have performed against the public:

  • <50% of spread tickets: 75-81-2 (48%) ATS
  • <45% of spread tickets: 50-42 (54%) ATS
  • <40% of spread tickets: 23-18 (56%) ATS
  • <35% of spread tickets: 14-6 (70%) ATS

The public is all over Golden State after it covered in Game 1. The Warriors have moved from +2 to +1.5 in Game 2. Chasing the Dubs has been a bad move this season: When the line has moved in the Warriors’ direction, they have gone 13-24 (35%) ATS.

The Rockets dropped Game 1 by 13 points at home to the Warriors. Since Dec. 1, the Rockets had lost a home game by double digits just twice before Game 1. Houston lost its next game both times.

  • Christmas Day at Thunder (+2.5, lost by 5)
  • Jan. 6 at Pistons (-6, lost by 7)

Here’s a fun fact: The Rockets have failed to cover their past three home games entering Game 2. This season, Houston has failed to cover the spread in four straight home games just once, and their fourth loss just happened to be against the Warriors in January.

The Warriors covered the spread in Game 1 on the road. Under Steve Kerr, Golden State has gone 10-4 straight-up and against the spread when playing the second leg of consecutive road games. A couple more notes on that …

  • The only other time Golden State was listed as an underdog in this spot was Game 4 of the 2016 NBA Finals, when it won by 11 in Cleveland.
  • Two of those 14 games were against the Rockets; the Warriors split them SU and ATS.
  • Since 2005, only Erik Spoelstra has been a more profitable coach in this situation, going 14-8-1 ATS.  — Evan Abrams and John Ewing

More Warriors-Rockets Game 2 Coverage:

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