The Warriors Are Dominant ATS in the Playoffs as Large Favorites
Pictured: Draymond Green. Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Rockets-Warriors Game 4.
The Rockets made dubious history in Game 3, losing by 41 points to the Warriors. It was just the seventh time since 2005 that a team lost a playoff game by 40 or more points. Good news for the Rockets, though: The teams that got embarrassed have gone 3-3 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread in their next game.
Bets were evenly split in Game 3, with 55% of spread tickets on the Warriors. After the blowout, we are seeing lopsided betting action in Game 4. Only 30% of bets are on Houston. Since 2005, when good teams (win rate of 65% or higher) receive fewer than 45% of bets, they have gone 143-87 (62%) ATS. If the ticket count is lower than 35%, teams have gone 34-16 (68%) ATS.
The Warriors are -8.5 at home vs. the Rockets in Game 4. When favored by six or more points in the playoffs under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 45-3 SU and 32-16 ATS.
The Warriors have won 27 straight games on the moneyline in this spot by an average of 17.7 PPG.
Just how dominant have the Warriors been over the Rockets under Kerr? Golden State has edged Houston in field-goal percentage in 24 of 27 meetings since 2014-15. After the three games Houston edged Golden State, the Rockets lost their next meeting by 14 points, 17 points and, most recently, 41 points after having the FG% edge in Game 2.
The Rockets turned the ball over 19 times in their Game 3 loss at Golden State. Houston hasn’t turned the ball over that many times in a game since late March (most in the playoffs for Houston). This season, the Rockets have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the game after turning the ball over 19 times or more. Houston is one of three teams this season undefeated straight-up after that many turnovers in their previous game.
Since the beginning of the Rockets’ conference semifinal series against the Jazz, Houston’s past three road playoff games have gone under the total by an average of 14.8 PPG. Overall this season, the under is 29-16-1 in Houston’s road games, going under the total by 5.8 PPG, profiting bettors 11.9 units; they’re the most profitable team to the under in that spot. The Rockets scored just 85 points in their last game, too, which many would assume would lean to the over in their next game. However, the under is actually 4-0 in Rockets road games this season after they scored fewer than 100 points in their previous game, going under the total by 15.3 PPG.