Three NBA Prop Bets for Monday Night: Portis Over/Under 15 Points?
Kamil Krzaczynski- USA Today Sports
Monday’s slate features seven games, and as usual the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable prop bets. There are currently three props with a Bet Quality of 10 and an additional 31 props with a Bet Quality of at least eight.
Here are three props I have my eye on for games starting at 7:30, 8:00, and 9:00 p.m. ET.
Bobby Portis over 15 points (-135 at Bovada)
8:00 p.m. ET
Portis has been dominant on a limited basis this season and will move into the starting lineup today against the Boston Celtics. He’s second on the team with a usage rate of 26.6 percent and has averaged 22.0 points per 36 minutes this season. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, and Portis has scored at least 18 points in every game this season in which he’s cracked 30 minutes.
Devin Booker under 4.5 assists (-114 at BetOnline)
7:30 p.m. ET
Booker has shown elite scoring ability in his young NBA career, but he is much less proven as a distributer of the basketball. His assist numbers have also been heavily impacted by the Suns’ addition of Elfrid Payton. Booker has seen his assist rate decrease by 12.3 percentage points while sharing the court with Payton and has tallied four or fewer assists in five of his past seven games. The Suns also have a tough matchup with the Heat, who are currently tied for seventh in defensive efficiency.
Jonathon Simmons under 12 points (-143 at BetOnline)
9:00 p.m. ET
The Magic have a brutal matchup tonight with the Utah Jazz, who rank in the top six in defensive efficiency and bottom six in pace this season. Orlando’s implied team total of 98.5 is the second-lowest mark on today’s slate, which suggests that scoring should come at a premium. Simmons has also seen a large decrease to his usage rate with the Magic back to full strength, posting a usage rate of 18.4 percent or lower in each of his past five games.
Top photo: Bobby Portis; credit: Kamil Krzaczynski- USA Today Sports