One of the most storied rivalry in NBA history is set for its latest postseason installment as the Philadelphia 76ers (45-37) and Boston Celtics (54-28) prepare to battle in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
This 2-vs-7 matchup brings decades of baggage to the floor, but the immediate narrative centers on a high-stakes medical report: Joel Embiid’s recent appendectomy has cast a massive shadow over the Sixers' outlook for the entire series.
Let's get into our Celtics vs. 76ers series preview for the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Celtics vs 76ers Opening Odds
Series Odds: Celtics -900, 76ers +600
Series Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-175), 76ers +2.5 (+150)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 (+160o / -190u)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
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Celtics vs 76ers Series Preview, Predictions
Matt Moore: 76ers +2.5 Series Spread (+150 at DraftKings)
I have a simple question for this series: "Why can’t the Philadelphia 76ers make this a real series?" I’m not picking them to win it outright, but I’m taking 76ers +2.5 at +150.
I genuinely believe the market is underestimating Philly's ability to steal games, especially in a series where we don't fully know who either of these teams are yet due to injuries.
Let’s talk about Joel Embiid. He’s recovering from an appendectomy, and while the "heroic return" in Game 3 is the fun narrative, it feels a bit early.
However, as I’ve noted before, internal organs heal differently than ligaments. We’re used to orthopedic functions taking months, but the body is built to fix its internal plumbing quickly.
I expect Embiid back by the end of the series—likely Game 5 or 6. But here’s the surprise: I’m not sure they even need him to tilt the matchup. In the limited minutes Embiid played against Boston this year, Philly actually got obliterated. They were significantly better when he was off the floor.
Without Joel, Nick Nurse can junk-up the coverage. They can go to a switch-all scheme with Adem Bona that forces Boston into the ISO-heavy habits that have tripped them up for years.
Offensively, Tyrese Maxey is the best player in this series. He was the seventh-best player in the league this season for me—an unrattle-able killer who is fast without being sped up.
Philly is in the 90th percentile in pick-and-roll offense, while Boston’s defensive drop coverage is in the 28th percentile.
If Maxey and V.J. Edgecombe can exploit those mid-range gaps and floaters, the Sixers are more than capable of keeping this close enough to cash the +2.5. I’m also looking at 76ers +12.5 in Game 1 as a serious play.
Brandon Anderson: Celtics -1.5 Series Spread (-275 at BetMGM)
My outlook for this series is pretty straightforward: "Embiid appendicitis, Philly wins play-in anyway, everything’s coming up Boston."
I’m taking the Celtics -1.5 at -275, which is essentially betting on Boston to win in six games or fewer. I’m also taking a small nibble on a Celtics sweep at +325.
I'm far less optimistic about the Embiid return, I think the timing is highly inconvenient. If he comes back in Game 5 or 6, it might be for a series that is already effectively over.
The biggest advantage for Boston in this series is on the glass. The Celtics are top-seven in offensive rebounding, while Philly is bottom-five in defensive rebounding.
In the season series, Boston was relentless, grabbing nearly 15 offensive boards per game. Neemias Queta alone had 10 in their last meeting.
There’s a very telling stat for the Celtics: when they win the rebounding battle, they are 44-12. When they lose it, they’re basically a .500 team.
Between the rebounding edge and their defensive discipline—they rarely foul or turn the ball over—they have a massive "possession math" advantage that will be hard for a shorthanded Philly team to overcome. Boston has the depth and the offensive rebounding to take care of business quickly.
I’m targeting two specific prop angles here.
First, Jayson Tatum to record 15+ rebounds in any playoff game (+200 at BetMGM). His rebounding has skyrocketed since he returned from the Achilles injury, and he’s playing a bigger, more interior role now. He had 18 in a game recently and was a monster on the glass against New York last week.
Second, I’m looking at Andre Drummond series rebounding leader. If Embiid is out for the first four games, Drummond is going to play massive minutes and put up historic numbers. He’s a double-double machine who could easily have a 20-rebound game in this specific matchup.
