FIBA World Cup Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Lithuania vs Serbia, Italy vs USA (Sept. 5)

FIBA World Cup Odds, Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Lithuania vs Serbia, Italy vs USA (Sept. 5) article feature image

Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrese Haliburton #4 high fives Anthony Edwards #10 of the USA National Team at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

Ready for the FIBA World Cup quarterfinals? Tuesday's slate is significantly shorter with just two games as we enter the late rounds of this year's tournament. However, the stakes and the competition is ratcheting up.

Our Action Network analysts —  Brandon AndersonJoe Dellera and Bryan Fonseca — are betting multiple matchups for Tuesday's slate, including a player prop for Lithuania vs Serbia and three predictions for Italy vs USA.

Read on for their FIBA World Cup best bets for Tuesday below.

Tuesday, Sept. 5
4:45 a.m. ET
Lithuania Odds
-106o / -120u
Serbia Odds
-106o / -120u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Joe Dellera: Let’s go back to the well with Stefan Jovic’s assists in the quarterfinals matchup against Lithuania. Jovic has averaged 6.4 assists in his last nine international games and seven per game during this World Cup.

He’s dished out six or more assists in four of his five World Cup games and I expect that to continue in this game against Lithuania. His minutes should see an uptick in a game that is critically important for not only the World Cup, but to secure an Olympic berth.

Pick: Stefan Jovic over 5.5 assists (-120)

Tuesday, Sept. 5
8:40 a.m. ET
Italy Odds
-110o / -110u
USA Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Bryan Fonseca: All tournament, and really even before that, my biggest concern with Team USA has been their slow starts. I think they should beat Italy, as I don't think this is a particularly awesome Italian squad, one that I'm at least half surprised has gotten to the quarterfinals.

That said, USA has been messing around in the first half ever since the scrimmages, including even against Puerto Rico and Germany, and in the tournament, they didn't even pull away from New Zealand's B team until the third quarter.

I think Italy will keep it close and remain within striking distance before the USA pulls away, and potentially covers.

Pick: Italy +9.5 1H (-110, DraftKings)

Dellera: I’m expecting a fast paced game against Italy in this quarterfinal matchup. I agree with Brandon that the United States should dominate this game and they should have little difficulty scoring against this defense.

One player who has gotten more comfortable as his role has become more solidified is Tyrese Haliburton. Over his last three games he’s tallied 6, 6, and 7 assists in roughly 20 minutes. With Ingram moved to the bench unit, it’s given Haliburton another willing scoring option in those bench minutes.

I’d sprinkle 7+ (+175 Bet365) and 8+ (+290 FD) as well, because if the game gets out of hand, Coach Kerr may let the bench unit see some extended run.

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 5.5 Assists (-112 BetRivers)

Brandon Anderson: This honestly feels like the easiest pick of the tournament thus far. This line is a gift, and so was USA’s loss to Lithuania.

We’re down to eight teams, and Italy sure feels like the worst team left in the tournament. The Americans lost outright to Lithuania and dropped to second in their group, but it was a blessing in disguise. Now USA gets to watch in delight with Canada and Slovenia – aka Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic – on the other side of the bracket along with Serbia and Lithuania. Instead the Americans luck into the softest draw with Italy, then a likely matchup against a Germany team that may or may not have Franz Wagner ready.

I’m not that worried about the Lithuania results. Sometimes the opponent starts out 9-for-9 from behind the arc. That’s luck and variance in a one-off tournament, and we see it every year in March Madness. Add in some silly foul trouble (more bad luck), notable for the guy I think is the most important player on this team in Jaren Jackson Jr., and that was always going to add up to a tough formula. I’m actually more encouraged by the American response that nearly won the game than worried about the L.

That said, you better believe Steve Kerr and the American coaches will use this perfectly-timed loss to make sure the team is focused and ready for knockout play. Team USA expects to win always, every game, and I expect the defensive intensity to be cranked up for this poor outclassed Italian team that’s already in over its heads. I grabbed this line immediately when it opened at -12.5. I honestly think that might be 10 points too low. Just get the best number you can find and watch the Americans roll.

Pick: USA -15.5 (Bet365)

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