Friday’s 4 Best NBA Player Props: Back Gordon Hayward as a Distributor

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s six games:

• Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics: 7 p.m. ET
• Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
• Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
• New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns: 8 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Celtics SF Gordon Hayward

THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (-130)

The Celtics are going to be without starting PG Kemba Walker for today’s matchup vs. the Hawks, and Hayward figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his assist rate by a team-high +6.6% with Walker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 6.4 assists per 36 minutes.

His matchup vs. the Hawks is another positive. They’ve struggled this season on defense, ranking 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. They’ve also played at the fourth-fastest pace, which is a good formula for allowing a bunch of points. The Celtics are currently implied for 117.25 points, which represents a massive increase compared to their regular season average (111.5).

This prop looks like a slam-dunk. I would play it up to -160.

Blazers C Hassan Whiteside

THE PICK: Over 15.5 rebounds (-130)

This is an absolutely massive number to consider taking the over on, but I still think it’s too low for Whiteside. He’s been one of the best rebounders in the league this season, ranking third in rebound rate and averaging 16.5 rebounds per 36 minutes. He probably won’t see that much playing time today vs. the Wizards, but his minutes have been up recently. Whiteside is currently projected for 33.7 minutes, and he’s played at least 32.1 minutes in seven of his past eight games.

The Wizards also represent arguably the best matchup in the league for rebounding purposes. They rank dead last in team rebound rate by a pretty significant margin, and they’ve also played at the third-fastest pace this season.

Whiteside should absolutely crush the Wizards on the boards tonight, which is something he’s done a lot recently. He’s grabbed at least 16 boards in six of his past eight games, so I’m not particularly scared of this number. I like the over up to -150.

76ers PF/C Al Horford

THE PICK: Over 10.5 points (-115)

Horford has not scored the ball well recently, logging nine points or fewer in four his past five games. I think that makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him. Horford has still averaged 12.4 points per game this season, and he’s scored at least 11 points in 20 of his first 32 games (62.5%).

He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Rockets, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season.

This line is simply too low for Horford, and I’d play the over up to -130.

Suns PF Dario Saric

THE PICK: Under 7.5 points (+136)

Saric has seen a massive decline in playing time as the Suns get closer to full strength. He’s logged 22.4 minutes or less in each of his past six games, including just 14.3 in his last contest.

This is a pretty low number — Saric can hit the over with just three made shots — but the juice on this prop makes it really appealing. I like the under at anything better than +110.