Lakers vs Heat Prediction, Picks Tonight | Best Bet for Wednesday

Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs Heat on Wednesday, Jan. 3 — our expert Lakers vs Heat prediction and picks for tonight's best bet for Wednesday.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat have enjoyed some ups and downs throughout what's supposed to be another season in each team's fading contender window.

There have been more ups for the Heat, though they've been bitten by the injury bug again, and the Lakers have been on a downward spiral ever since winning the In-Season Tournament.

It's January, so it's not must-win territory, but both teams could use a victory tonight for similar reasons.

Let's get to our Lakers vs Heat prediction and pick.

The 17-17 Lakers are blessed with a five-game homestand this week, which begins tonight against the Heat, and they'll need every bit of good fortune they can get in order to recap their In-Season Tournament magic. 

Since beating the Indiana Pacers in the IST Final on Dec. 9, the Lakers are just 3-8, and immediately followed their championship victory with a five-game losing streak, one which came against the San Antonio Spurs. 

The Lakers and Heat did battle in Miami on Nov. 6 of this season, where a then-healthy Jimmy Butler led his team with 28 points, six assists, four rebounds and two steals while shooting 60/75/100 against LeBron James and the Lakers. 

Per usual, the Heat were up fairly big late in the contest and nearly squandered a double-digit lead but hung on to win 108-107 despite a late L.A. rally. The Lakers are home this time around, where they're 11-4 on the season, the sixth-best home record in the Western Conference.

Despite having the NBA's all-time leading scorer, the Lakers' success comes from their ability to defend. They commit the fewest fouls per 100 possessions (16.8) and rank fourth in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions (34.6). Their poor offense holds them back, though. Much like last season, they don't shoot enough 3-pointers — tied for 28th in attempts per 100 — and their lack of offensive rebounding (20.1 OREB percentage) means their possessions tend to be one-and-done.

They have a few injuries of relevance listed. D'Angelo Russell (tailbone contusion), Cam Reddish (groin), Rui Hachimura (calf strain) are all questionable and listed as day-to-day. Russell and Reddish missed Sunday's game against the Pelicans entirely, and Hachimura left early, not to return.

Gabe Vincent (knee surgery) will be re-evaluated in eight weeks, successfully continuing the Kendrick Nunn arc of former Heat players who immediately have an injury-plagued Laker season.

The Heat just got their doors blown off by the L.A. Clippers, losing 121-104. They are quietly 19-14 and fifth in the Eastern Conference — they were fourth until their recent two game skid.

They're in the midst of a west coast road trip that began with a win over the Golden State Warriors, followed by losses to the Utah Jazz and Clippers and a Jimmy Butler injury. Butler, who is day-to-day, injured his foot against Utah, didn't return and sat the Clippers game on Monday night. Caleb Martin (ankle), Josh Richardson (back), Haywood Highsmith (concussion) all missed the game against the Clippers as well. Highsmith was said back to Miami and won't be on the road trip going forward.

Offensively, the Heat have some positive indicators. They rank second in 3-point percentage (38.8%) and third in free throw percentage (82.4%) on the seventh-most attempts in the league. However, their shooting in the restricted area ranks in the bottom five in the NBA and in their mid-range shooting ranks in the bottom 10, pulling their overall 2-point shooting (52.2%) down to 25th. Defensively, as usual, the Heat are stellar; they crash the boards (77.2 DREB percentage, third in the league) and force turnovers (14.8 per 100, sixth in the NBA) with the best of them.

The Heat have a shot to enter their final game out west against the Phoenix Suns with a split. Their biggest issue this season has been in the fourth quarter, and if they were simply average in the final stanza of basketball, they'd have an elite record. Miami is 10-23 in fourth quarters this season and a whopping -109 plus/minus. That's awful for a perceived contender, and has been their demise in several games. 

The Heat are one of the league leaders in "games they should've won" and could legitimately be five wins better if they were simply average in fourth quarters instead of elite level awful. I've made money fading them in fourth quarters and will do it again in a road spot against a desperate Lakers team looking to build confidence at home.

I lean Lakers to win, though the Heat also might lead the NBA in "of course they'd win that game" in the Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo era. So, my favorite bet is the Lakers fourth-quarter spread.

Pick: Lakers 4Q Spread -0.5