How To Bet Stephon Castle’s 2024 Draft Props

How To Bet Stephon Castle’s 2024 Draft Props article feature image

Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle enters the 2024 NBA Draft with plenty of interest after helping UConn win another championship this season. Check out a scouting report on Castle, plus how to bet his draft props. 

For more on the NBA offseason, check out the latest NBA free agency intel from our expert analyst, Matt Moore.

Stephon Castle Scouting Report

The 19-year-old guard displayed superb defensive chops as both a point-of-attack obstacle and off-ball chaser. Castle stands over 6’6” tall and sports a 6’9” wingspan, so he has the size to defend guards and smaller wings with ease. His near All-Defensive team ceiling will be a strong pull for franchises and therefore gives him a strong floor in this draft. 

Meanwhile, Castle flashed intriguing pick-and-roll playmaking and advanced reads off the catch. UConn’s system did not showcase him in a true point guard role, but he has the tools to orchestrate possessions at the NBA level. The jury is still out on whether Castle is more of a primary ball handler or connective playmaker, but teams can count on effective manipulation via passing from him. 

Rim scoring and cuts will be steady sources of points for the UConn guard, but will the shooting come around? That’s the million dollar question that scouts are debating at the moment. Per Synergy Sports, Castle produced a mere 0.78 points per shot on catch-and-shoot attempts, which ranked in the 20th percentile. Additionally, he was in the 26th percentile for dribble-jumpers. 

Shooting is at a premium in today’s NBA, especially for guards. If defenses can routinely go under screens against Castle and block both driving lanes and rollers, then it will be difficult for him to thrive as a ball handler. 

For a player comparison, Castle shares similar strengths and weaknesses with Marcus Smart. Castle is a bit more versatile offensively though plus has superior physical traits, although he’s a touch behind Smart in terms of playmaking. 

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Draft Picks Linked To Stephon Castle

Based on Castle’s profile, it would be utterly shocking if he fell out of the top ten. That seems unfathomable at this point. To be more specific, his projected range is anywhere from third overall to sixth overall with a slight chance that he slides further. For context, his draft position prop is set at 5.5 on DraftKings. 

Let’s see where he fits. 

Best Fits:

The ideal landing spot is Charlotte. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are comfortable playing on or off-ball, and they bring plenty of outside shooting to the table. Castle could fill in the playmaking gaps while being its defensive ace on the perimeter who takes the top option every night. 

San Antonio also needs to add playmaking and defense this offseason, and Tre Jones owning an expiring contract may prompt the Spurs to draft a guard. Castle’s shooting concerns are not ideal next to Victor Wembanyama though, and they are apparently enamored with French wing Zaccharie Risacher. 

Finally, Castle would be a fascinating fit next to Keyonte George and Lauri Markkannen, but it’s highly unlikely that he plummets to the tenth pick for Utah. 

Worst Fits:

The last thing that Detroit should add is another prospect with suspect shooting, and it already has Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey on the roster. Look for Detroit to target a wing with its pick. 

The same principle applies to Portland, as Castle does not blend well with Scoot Henderson. If the Blazers decide to keep Anfernee Simons, then that is another mark against Castle. I expect Portland to draft a wing or perhaps a center. 

As for Memphis, it already has enough guards but desperately need to acquire a center. 

Unlikely Landing Spots:

  • 1st Overall
  • 2nd Overall
  • 3rd Overall

Alexandre Sarr is a top-two talent in this draft, and both Atlanta and Washington would be great destinations for him. Therefore, Sarr’s floor appears to be the second overall pick. Risacher and Donovan Clingan will also be on the Wizards’ radar, while San Antonio could trade up to first overall with Atlanta to draft Risacher. Essentially, Castle does not have the perceived talent or reach-for-perfect-fit upside to crack the top two selections. 

The third overall pick is a wild card because Houston is shopping the pick. Reed Sheppard makes the most sense for the Rockets, but a team could trade up and snag Castle in order to jump the Spurs’ pick. It’s an improbable but possible outcome. 

How To Bet Stephon Castle’s Draft Props

Risking one unit on the following structure at DraftKings is an excellent way to bet the UConn guard:

  • 3rd overall pick (+700) at 0.15 units = 0.2 units profit 
  • 4th overall pick (+300) at 0.35 units = 0.4 units profit 
  • 6th overall pick (+350) at 0.5 units = 1.25 units profit

I don’t expect Castle to wind up in the top two or for Detroit to either draft him or trade the pick. Plus, Charlotte at sixth overall represents Castle’s floor to me based on talent and fit. Therefore, the structure takes into account these predictions and creates a profitable situation should they be true. It heavily favors Castle going sixth overall because that’s the most logical landing spot. 

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Doug Ziefel
Jul 13, 2024 UTC